MODELOS DE INCENDIOS MICHOACAN

UN MODELO DE RIESGO DE INCENDIO EN
MICHOACÁN, MÉXICO

Sonia María Juárez Orozco

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Tabla de Contenidos
AGRADECIMIENTOS

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RESUMEN EJECUTIVO

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1

INTRODUCCIÓN

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MÉTODO

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2.1 FASE EXPLORATORIA
2.2 FASE DE MODELAJE
2.2.1 SUBMODELO COMBUSTIBLE
2.2.2 SUBMODELO IGNICIÓN
2.2.3 SUBMODELO DETECCIÓN
2.2.4 SUBMODELO RESPUESTA
2.2.5 MODELO ESTÁTICO DE RIESGO DE INCENDIO
2.2.6 MODELOMULTI-TEMPORAL DE RIESGO DE INCENDIO (SUBMODELO CLIMA)
2.3 VALIDACIÓN

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RESULTADOS

3.1 FASE I. EXPLORATORIA
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3.1.1 FACTORES BIOFÍSICOS QUE AFECTAN LA INCIDENCIA Y COMPORTAMIENTO DE INCENDIOS
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FORESTALES
3.2 FASE II. MODELAJE
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3.2.1 SUBMODELO COMBUSTIBLE
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3.2.2 SUBMODELO IGNICIÓN
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3.2.3 SUBMODELO DETECCIÓN
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3.2.4 SUBMODELO RESPUESTA
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3.2.5MODELO ESTÁTICO DE RIESGO DE INCENDIO
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3.2.6 MODELO MULTI-TEMPORAL DE RIESGO DE INCENDIO (SUBMODELO CLIMA)
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3.3 FASE III. VALIDACIÓN
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CONCLUSIONES

ABSTRACT

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1.

INTRODUCTION

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1.1 BACKGROUND
1.1.1 FOREST FIRES AND INFLUENCING FACTORS
1.1.2 CLASSIFICATION OF FOREST FIRE
1.1.3 FOREST FIRES: EFFECTS AND CONSEQUENCES
1.1.4 FIRE HAZARD, RISK AND DANGER DEFINITIONS
1.1.5THE ROLE OF REMOTE SENSING AND GIS IN FIRE MODELLING
1.1.5.1 Active fires
1.1.5.2 Burnt scars
1.1.5.3 Forest fires modelling
1.1.6 FOREST FIRES IN MEXICO
1.1.1. ACTUAL FIRE COMBATING AND PREVENTION IN MEXICO
1.2 RESEARCH PROBLEM
1.3 RATIONALE
1.4 RESEARCH OBJECTIVES AND QUESTIONS

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STUDY AREA

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LOCATION
CLIMATE
VEGETATION
LAND USE
POPULATION34
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2.1
2.2
2.3
2.4
2.5
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METHOD

3.1 EXPLORATORY PHASE
3.1.1 LITERATURE REVIEW AND SELECTING FACTORS INFLUENCING FOREST FIRE
3.1.2 DATA PROCESSING
1. STUDY AREA DEMARCATION
3.1.3 VEGETATION TYPE MAP IMPROVEMENT
3.1.4 BURNT AREA MAPPING
3.1.5 ANALYSIS OF FACTORS INFLUENCING FOREST FIRES
3.2 MODELING PHASE
3.2.1 FUEL RISK SUB-MODEL
3.2.1.1 Land cover index
3.2.1.2 Slopeindex
3.2.1.3 Elevation index
3.2.1.4 Aspect index
3.2.2 IGNITION RISK SUB-MODEL
3.2.3 FIRE DETECTION RISK SUB-MODEL.
3.2.4 RESPONSE RISK SUB-MODEL
3.2.4.1 On-road response
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3.2.4.2 Off-road response
3.2.5 STATIC FIRE RISK MODEL
3.2.6 WEATHER RISK SUB-MODEL.
3.3 VALIDATION PHASE
3.4 MATERIALS
3.4.1 CARTOGRAPHIC DATA AND IMAGERY
3.4.1.2IMAGES
A) MODIS IMAGES
B) ASTER IMAGES
3.4.2 GROUND RECORDS
C) COFOM RECORDS

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RESULTS AND DISCUSSION

4.1 EXPLORATORY PHASE
4.1.1 BURNT AREA MAP
4.1.2 ANALYSIS OF BIOPHYSICAL FACTORS INFLUENCING FOREST FIRE
4.1.2.1 Vegetation type
4.1.2.2 Elevation
4.1.2.3 Slope
4.1.2.4 Aspect
4.1.2.5 Ignition factors
4.1.2.6 Weather
4.2 MODELLING PHASE
4.2.1 FUELRISK SUB-MODEL
4.2.2 IGNITION RISK SUB-MODEL
4.2.3 WEATHER RISK SUB-MODELS
4.2.4 DETECTION RISK SUB-MODEL
4.2.5 RESPONSE RISK SUB-MODEL
4.2.6 STATIC FIRE RISK MODEL
4.3 VALIDATION
4.4 RELEVANCE OF THE OBTAINED RESULTS

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5.1
5.2

CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
CONCLUSION
RECOMMENDATIONS

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REFERENCES

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APPENDICES

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LAND COVER MAP

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B.
C.
D.

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VEGETATION TYPES
WEATHER SUB-MODELS
STUDY CASE: GIS FOREST FIRE RISK MODEL (IN SPANISH)

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List of figures
FIGURE 1-1. MAIN CAUSES OF FOREST FIRES IN 1998, MEXICO .............................................................................. 29
FIGURE 2-1 STUDY AREA LOCALIZATION IN AN ASTER IMAGE OF MICHOACÁN, MEXICO..................................... 35
FIGURE 2-2. CLIMATOGRAPHS FROM (A) LOS REYES STATION (SUBTROPICAL) AND (B) CARAPAN STATION
(TEMPERATE) IN MICHOACÁN, MEXICO ......................................................................................................... 36
FIGURE 3-1. MICHOACÁN’S MUNICIPALITIES WITH HIGHEST PERCENTAGE OF FOREST FIRES IN FOUR YEARS .......... 43
FIGURE 3-2 FACTOR ANALYSIS...