Simulacion Basica Método Monte Carlo
Páginas: 3 (531 palabras)
Publicado: 15 de noviembre de 2012
SIMULACION DE DEMANDA CON 1 VARIABLE Empresa N desea simular 100 días de demanda en la venta de su producto Y
Probabilidad acumulada (inferior) 0 0.05 0.15 0.35 0.65 0.85
Demanda 0 1 2 3 4 5Total
Frecuencia (días) 10 20 40 60 40 30 200
Probabilidad Probabilidad acumulada (superior) 0.05 0.05 0.10 0.15 0.20 0.35 0.30 0.65 0.20 0.85 0.15 1.00
Día 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13Número aleatorio 0.1740324 0.0704895 0.2570263 0.9590303 0.4672629 0.9031659 0.5516342 0.5228269 0.7050977 0.7079134 0.9640688 0.6272196 0.8323131 0.8069376 0.3175853 0.9327098 0.6987749 0.98999130.9160249 0.3341037 0.9704548 0.2928745 0.2538777 0.1193790 0.8206118 0.6693701 0.0856915 0.9544119 0.2755783 0.1206689 0.8749688 0.3104466 0.0162846 0.8062256 0.9078011 0.6792599 0.2004375 0.79241040.4357970 0.7934917 0.5895448 0.7388589 0.0816411 0.0578345 0.2144331
Demanda simulada 2 1 2 5 3 5 3 3 4 4 5 3 4 4 2 5 4 5 5 2 5 2 2 1 4 4 1 5 2 1 5 2 0 4 5 4 2 4 3 4 3 4 1 1 2
Demanda esperada
2.95Resultados (Tabla de frecuencias) Demanda de Frecuencia llantas 0 3 1 12 2 18 3 17 4 24 5 26 Total 100 Demanda prom. 3.25 simulada
Porcentaje 3% 12% 18% 17% 24% 26%
% Acumulado 3% 15% 33%50% 74% 100%
14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45
46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 7475 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 100
0.7816596 0.9613794 0.1648879 0.8747530 0.5042247 0.5941618 0.0944724 0.9371028 0.4751865 0.1193308 0.81646740.5156243 0.4237977 0.0953802 0.1195594 0.8334535 0.2934121 0.9045571 0.5106517 0.9605289 0.6737513 0.8989812 0.2001476 0.8845373 0.9882017 0.9365210 0.0072826 0.8975246 0.7953728 0.0460515 0.79071790.4326330 0.8623606 0.7187905 0.2971845 0.9590475 0.3483539 0.0746068 0.8237939 0.4634196 0.3803021 0.9294767 0.6730922 0.9477720 0.4734178 0.1486063 0.6972150 0.9664682 0.6059761 0.3253397 0.8905721...
Probabilidad acumulada (inferior) 0 0.05 0.15 0.35 0.65 0.85
Demanda 0 1 2 3 4 5Total
Frecuencia (días) 10 20 40 60 40 30 200
Probabilidad Probabilidad acumulada (superior) 0.05 0.05 0.10 0.15 0.20 0.35 0.30 0.65 0.20 0.85 0.15 1.00
Día 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13Número aleatorio 0.1740324 0.0704895 0.2570263 0.9590303 0.4672629 0.9031659 0.5516342 0.5228269 0.7050977 0.7079134 0.9640688 0.6272196 0.8323131 0.8069376 0.3175853 0.9327098 0.6987749 0.98999130.9160249 0.3341037 0.9704548 0.2928745 0.2538777 0.1193790 0.8206118 0.6693701 0.0856915 0.9544119 0.2755783 0.1206689 0.8749688 0.3104466 0.0162846 0.8062256 0.9078011 0.6792599 0.2004375 0.79241040.4357970 0.7934917 0.5895448 0.7388589 0.0816411 0.0578345 0.2144331
Demanda simulada 2 1 2 5 3 5 3 3 4 4 5 3 4 4 2 5 4 5 5 2 5 2 2 1 4 4 1 5 2 1 5 2 0 4 5 4 2 4 3 4 3 4 1 1 2
Demanda esperada
2.95Resultados (Tabla de frecuencias) Demanda de Frecuencia llantas 0 3 1 12 2 18 3 17 4 24 5 26 Total 100 Demanda prom. 3.25 simulada
Porcentaje 3% 12% 18% 17% 24% 26%
% Acumulado 3% 15% 33%50% 74% 100%
14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45
46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 7475 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 100
0.7816596 0.9613794 0.1648879 0.8747530 0.5042247 0.5941618 0.0944724 0.9371028 0.4751865 0.1193308 0.81646740.5156243 0.4237977 0.0953802 0.1195594 0.8334535 0.2934121 0.9045571 0.5106517 0.9605289 0.6737513 0.8989812 0.2001476 0.8845373 0.9882017 0.9365210 0.0072826 0.8975246 0.7953728 0.0460515 0.79071790.4326330 0.8623606 0.7187905 0.2971845 0.9590475 0.3483539 0.0746068 0.8237939 0.4634196 0.3803021 0.9294767 0.6730922 0.9477720 0.4734178 0.1486063 0.6972150 0.9664682 0.6059761 0.3253397 0.8905721...
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