Lectura critica

OBJETIVO

Con la revisión bibliografica se pretende plantear alternativas para estudiar el impacto del cambio climatico en el abastecimiento futuro de los municipios ubicados en la cuenca del río Cauca, desde su nacimiento hasta el embalse de Salvagina. Se revisaran metodologias y resultados de articulos relacionados con el tema, en relación a estudios previos a nivel mundial, nacional ylocal. Se revisaran datos de estaciones metereologicas y modelos digitales del terreno. Las metodologias que se analizaran se refieren a la selección de un modelo climatico apropiado para la zona en estudio, la reduccion de la escala del modelo climatico, estimación de la demanda de agua, estimación del impacto hidrologico, evalución y predición de la demanda de agua futura y presentación de lainformación a las entidades encargadas del manejo y preservación de los recursos hidricos.

PLAN DE TRABAJO

GOAL

This research proposal aims to assess the impact of climate change on the water supply of municipalities in river basins. The proposal is base this on a case study of the Cauca River basin, from its source to Salvajina reservoir. It would consider the information from meteorologicalstations and previous studies in the area. The methodology includes the selection of appropriate climate model for the area and the inputs to the model, downscaling of climate model results, estimating of water supply-demand, creating climate impacted hydrology, evaluating future water supply hydrology into a yield evaluation and presenting this information to decision makers.

TITLE: IMPACT OFCLIMATE CHANGE ON MUNICIPALS WATER SUPPLY OF CAUCA RIVER BASIN

INTRODUCTION

For the time being, a common practice for water resources engineers and planners is to focus on a combination of recorded stream flows, the re-creation of past hydrologic records, and/or statistical extension of hydrologic records to create data that supports evaluation of water resource system. This implies anassumption that the processes most important to the hydrologic record are stochastic and stationary. That is, future stream flows cannot be predicted precisely, but their statistical characteristics do not change significantly over time.

However, the recent climate research suggests that contrary to past assumptions the mean values of temperature, precipitation, and stream flow are not stationarybut transforming due to global climate change. In 1988, the World Meteorological Organization and the United Nations Environment Program established the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Since that time, the IPCC has published four major reports, in 1990, 1996, 2001, and 2007. These reports state, in increasingly emphatic tones, that the world is warming, that the climate ischanging, that many of these changes are directly linked to increasing greenhouse gases, and that these changes will impact water resources (Wiley and Palmer, 2008).

Therefore, among others Viessman, 2006, states that individuals planning the future water supplies must add the climate change impact into their equations apart of other already considered uncertainties associated with future population,per capita water demand, regulatory requirements, water law, consumer preferences, environmental standards etc.

Climate change, according to the definition by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2001), refers to any change in the climate overtime whether due to natural variability or as a result of human activities. This definition though, is in clash with the one given by theFramework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC). The FCCC states that the climate change is only a result of either a direct on indirect human activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere on top of the existing natural variability.

According to the Instituto de Hidrologia, Meteorologia y Estudios Ambientales de Colombia (ideam-a,2001) this subtle difference in perception of...