Balanza Comercial

BALANZA DE PAGOS
1. ANTECEDENTES
2. ANALISIS DESCRIPTIVO
2.1. LA CUENTA CORRIENTE
Y= a x^2 + b x + c (Parábola)
Y^ = a x^2 + b x + c (Estimación)
∑ (E) ^2 = ∑ (Y – Y^) = ∑(Y – (a x^2 + b x + c)) ^2 = E^2 = Q
Q = ∑ (Y – a x^2 – b x – c) ^2
dQ / da = 2 ∑ (Y – a x^2 – b x – c) (-x^2) =0
dQ / db = 2 ∑(Y – a x^2 – b x – c) (-x) = 0
dQ / dc = 2 ∑(Y – a x^2 – b x – c) (-1) = 0
Ecuaciones- ∑ X^2 Y + ∑a X^4 + ∑b X^3 + ∑ c X^2 = 0
- ∑ X Y + ∑ X^3 + ∑b X^2 + ∑c X = 0
- ∑ Y + ∑a X^2 + ∑b X + ∑ n = 0
Ordenando
a ∑ X^4 + b ∑ X^3 + c ∑ X^2 = ∑X^2 Y
a ∑X^3 + b ∑ X^2 + c ∑ X = ∑X Y
a ∑ X^2 + b ∑X + c ∑ n = ∑Y
Variables
X: PERIODO
Y: CUENTA CORRIENTE (expresada en millones de dólares)

AÑO | X | Y | X^2 | X^3 | X^4 | XY | X^2Y |
2004 | 1 | 337.4 | 1 | 1 | 1 |337.4 | 337.4 |
2005 | 2 | 622.5 | 4 | 8 | 16 | 1245 | 2490 |
2006 | 3 | 1317.6 | 9 | 27 | 81 | 3952.8 | 11858 |
2007 | 4 | 1591.2 | 16 | 64 | 256 | 6364.8 | 25459 |
2008 | 5 | 2015.0 | 25 | 125 | 625 | 10075 | 50375 |
2009 | 6 | 800.7 | 36 | 216 | 1296 | 4804.2 | 28825 |
TOTAL | 21 | 6684.4 | 91 | 441 | 2275 | 26779.2 | 119345.2 |

Ecuaciones
1) 2275 a + 441 b + 91 c = 119345.22) 441 a +91 b + 21 c = 26779.2
3) 91 a+ 21 b + 6 c = 6684.4
a = -153.2
b = 1266.1
c =-993

Solución

Y^ = -153.2 X^2 + 1266.1 X - 993

Cuenta corriente

PROYECCIONES

AÑO | Variable explicativa (X) Periodo | Variable explicativa (Y) Cuenta corriente |
2010 | 7 | 362.9 |
2011 | 8 | -669 |

Cálculos
Y^2010 = -153.2 (7) ^2 +1266.1 (7) – 993 = 362.9
Y^2011 = -153.2 (8)^2 +1266.1 (8) – 993 = -669
Cuenta corriente

2.2. LA EXPORTACION DE BIENES
Y= a x^2 + b x + c (Parábola)
Y^ = a x^2 + b x + c (Estimación)
∑ (E) ^2 = ∑ (Y – Y^) = ∑ (Y – (a x^2 + b x + c)) ^2 = E^2 = Q
Q = ∑ (Y – a x^2 – b x – c) ^2
dQ / da = 2 ∑ (Y – a x^2 – b x – c) (-x^2) =0
dQ / db = 2 ∑(Y – a x^2 – b x – c) (-x) = 0
dQ / dc = 2 ∑(Y – a x^2 – b x – c) (-1) = 0
Ecuaciones
- ∑X^2 Y + ∑a X^4 + ∑b X^3 + ∑ c X^2 = 0
- ∑ X Y + ∑ X^3 + ∑b X^2 + ∑c X = 0
- ∑ Y + ∑a X^2 + ∑b X + ∑ n = 0
Ordenando
a ∑ X^4 + b ∑ X^3 + c ∑ X^2 = ∑X^2 Y
a ∑X^3 + b ∑ X^2 + c ∑ X = ∑X Y
a ∑ X^2 + b ∑X + c ∑ n = ∑Y
Variables
X: PERIODO
Y: EXPORTACION DE BIENES (expresada en millones de dólares)
AÑO | X | Y | X^2 | X^3 | X^4 | XY | X^2Y |
2004 | 1 | 2146 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2146 |2146 |
2005 | 2 | 2791.1 | 4 | 8 | 16 | 5582.2 | 11164.4 |
2006 | 3 | 3874.5 | 9 | 27 | 81 | 11623.5 | 34870.5 |
2007 | 4 | 4458.3 | 16 | 64 | 256 | 17833.2 | 71332.8 |
2008 | 5 | 6447.8 | 25 | 125 | 625 | 32239 | 161195 |
2009 | 6 | 4847.7 | 36 | 216 | 1296 | 29086.2 | 174517.2 |
TOTAL | 21 | 24565.4 | 91 | 441 | 2275 | 98510.1 | 455225.9 |

Ecuaciones

1) 2275 a + 441 b + 91c = 455225.9
2) 441 a +91 b + 21 c = 98510.1
3) 91 a+ 21 b + 6 c = 24565.4
a = -135.74
b = 1666.3
c = 321.06

Solución

Y^ = -135.74 X^2 + 1666.3 X + 321.06

PROYECCIONES
AÑO | Variable explicativa (X) Periodo | Variable explicativa (Y) Exportación de bienes |
2010 | 7 | 5333.9 |
2011 | 8 | 4964.1 |

Cálculos
Y^2010 = -135.74 (7) ^2 +1666.3 (7) + 321.06 = 5333.9Y^2011 = -135.74 (8) ^2 +1666.3 (8) + 321.06 = 4964.1


2.3. LA IMPORTACION DE BIENES
Y= a x^2 + b x + c (Parábola)
Y^ = a x^2 + b x + c (Estimación)
∑ (E) ^2 = ∑ (Y – Y^) = ∑ (Y – (a x^2 + b x + c)) ^2 = E^2 = Q
Q = ∑ (Y – a x^2 – b x – c) ^2
dQ / da = 2 ∑ (Y – a x^2 – b x – c) (-x^2) =0
dQ / db = 2 ∑(Y – a x^2 – b x – c) (-x) = 0
dQ / dc = 2 ∑(Y – a x^2 – b x – c) (-1) = 0
Ecuaciones- ∑ X^2 Y + ∑a X^4 + ∑b X^3 + ∑ c X^2 = 0
- ∑ X Y + ∑ X^3 + ∑b X^2 + ∑c X = 0
- ∑ Y + ∑a X^2 + ∑b X + ∑ n = 0
Ordenando
a ∑ X^4 + b ∑ X^3 + c ∑ X^2 = ∑X^2 Y
a ∑X^3 + b ∑ X^2 + c ∑ X = ∑X Y
a ∑ X^2 + b ∑X + c ∑ n = ∑Y
Variables
X: PERIODO
Y: IMPORTACION DE BIENES (expresada en millones de dólares)
AÑO | X | Y | X^2 | X^3 | X^4 | XY | X^2Y |
2004 | 1 | -1844.2 | 1 | 1 |...