Ciencias pecuarias

Livestock Science 130 (2010) 57–69

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Livestock Science
j o u r n a l h o m e p a g e : w w w. e l s ev i e r. c o m / l o c a t e / l i v s c i

Effects of climate changes on animal production and sustainability of livestock systems☆
A. Nardone ⁎, B. Ronchi, N. Lacetera, M.S. Ranieri, U. Bernabucci
Dipartimento di Produzioni Animali, Università dellaTuscia—via De Lellis, s.n.c. 01100, Viterbo, Italia

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The effects of climate change are controversial. This paper reviews the effects of climate change on livestock following the theory of global warming. Although, the effects of global warming will not be adverse everywhere, a relevant increase of drought is expected across the world affecting forage and cropproduction. Hot environment impairs production (growth, meat and milk yield and quality, egg yield, weight, and quality) and reproductive performance, metabolic and health status, and immune response. The process of desertification will reduce the carrying capacity of rangelands and the buffering ability of agro-pastoral and pastoral systems. Other systems, such as mixed systems and industrial orlandless livestock systems, could encounter several risk factors mainly due to the variability of grain availability and cost, and low adaptability of animal genotypes. Regarding livestock systems, it will be strategic to optimise productivity of crops and forage (mainly improving water and soil management), and to improve the ability of animals to cope with environmental stress by management andselection. To guide the evolution of livestock production systems under the increase of temperature and extreme events, better information is needed regarding biophysical and social vulnerability, and this must be integrated with agriculture and livestock components. © 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Keywords: Climate change Animal production Livestock production systems Sustainability

1.Introduction A huge increase in the demand of animal production is expected in the next decades. Food and water security will be one of the other priorities for humankind in the 21st century. Over the same period the World will experience a change in the global climate that will cause shifts in local climate that will impact on local and global agriculture. The key conclusions of Working Group I ofthe Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) (IPCC, 2007) were: a) warming of the climatic system is unequivocal; b) anthropogenic warming will probably continue for centuries due to the timescales associated with climate processes and feedbacks; c) the

☆ This article is part of the special issue entitled “10th World Conference on Animal Production(WCAP)” guest edited by Norman Casey. ⁎ Corresponding author. Tel.: + 39 07613574333; fax: + 39 0761357434. E-mail address: nardone@unitus.it (A. Nardone). 1871-1413/$ – see front matter © 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. doi:10.1016/j.livsci.2010.02.011

surface air warming in the 21st century by best estimate will range from 1.1 to 2.9 °C for a “low scenario” and of 2.4 to 6.4 °C for a “highscenario”. Moreover, the IPCC report estimates a confidence level N90% that there will be more frequent warm spells, heat waves and heavy rainfall and a confidence level N66% that there will be an increase in drought, tropical cyclones and extreme high tides. The magnitude of the events will vary depending on the geographic zones of the World. The AR4 has been subjected to scientific criticism. Ithas been said that the report understates or overstates the dangers of climate change, and overstates the faults due to anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations. Nevertheless, the recognized scientists contributing to the IPCC report and the results of our analysis of the evolution of temperature–humidity index (THI) in the Mediterranean area in the last five decades of 20th century (data...