Foresight

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  • Publicado : 1 de junio de 2010
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Foresight is not just an exploration. It process involves reflection, networking, and discussion. In the global context, foresight has going across many generations. The first one involvestechnology forecast. The second generation includes markets and the third one, social dimensions (as educations or public sectors). The fourth generation tries to industrial foresight as a factor whichimproves innovation policies. Foresight about foresight is the future, which means researches in health, transport, security and energy areas that improves government policies.

Foresight (as thinkingabout future) is just a mental process. But, to think about tomorrow has difficult as the speed of changes or not knowledge of right methods. Even if, the purpose of foresight is to go some way todevelop and systemize some abilities.

We know about many experiences in foresight practice. For example, in Czech Republic, Spain, UK and Germany. They used different methods as Delphi, scenarios,using expert panels and consultation. The time horizons average was around ten years. Some IOs that have used foresight include OECD, IBRD, UN, UNIDO, UNESCO and APEC.

In this context DEFRA is anorganization that looks for opportunities and future developments. DEFRA uses the horizon scanning (a critical factor in modern organizations). The management board drivers are joined up thinking, futureproofing policy options and share it with ministers. The curiosity and passion for futures work helps, and the network is critical). DEFRA helps the organization to develop and improve their horizonscanning. (DEFRA means Department for environment food and rural affair).

Foresight uses methods for other disciplines (management, statistics, etc.). The methods of future researches can bequantitative or qualitative (Normative and exploratory). All techniques are based on assumptions about our relationship with the future. Finding the appropriate method depend on the circumstances we are...
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