Gams biocarburants

Institut d'Etude du Développement Economique et Social (IEDES) Université de Paris 1- Panthéon Sorbonne

“Evaluating the Impacts of Biofuel Price for Agricultural Policies”

RESEARCH PAPER Exercices de prévision et de simulation sur logiciel (Expertise économique du développement) Academic year 2009-2010

Professor: Mohamed Ali MAROUANI

by Mehdi S. Bouabib Rogério C. Borges de OliveiraVioleta I. Cabrera

Paris, France. April 2010
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Abstract
Over the last few years, the production of renewable fuels has increased dramatically. Rising oil prices, limited supplies of fossil fuel, and increased concerns about global warming have created a growing demand for renewable energy sources. In the past few years, ethanol and biodiesel industries have experienced tremendous growthwhose production is highly dependent on the availability of agricultural feedstocks. Producers of these feedstocks are experiencing an increased demand for their commodities, which leads to higher prices. Increasing biofuel prices will definitely have impacts on the national economy. This paper aims to analyze the impact of international price for biofuel in our economy.

Key words: generalequilibrium, biofuel price, agricultural policy, commodities

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INDEX
1. 2. 3. 4. Introduction ....................................................................................................................... 4 Literature Review ............................................................................................................. 5 Computable General Equilibrium Model....................................................................... 7 Results and discussion .................................................................................................... 11 4.1. 4.2. 4.3. 4.4. 4.5. 4.6. 5. 6. 7. Price and Consumption ........................................................................................... 11 Value Added (Production)...................................................................................... 12 Revenue..................................................................................................................... 13 Cropland ................................................................................................................... 14 Utility........................................................................................................................ 14 Imports and Exports ............................................................................................... 15

Conclusion ....................................................................................................................... 16 Reference List.................................................................................................................. 17 Appendix .......................................................................................................................... 18

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1. Introduction

Increasing fossil fuel prices, energy security concerns and environmental consciousness have motivated countries to explore alternative energy sources, including biofuels. Because of the expectation thatbiofuels could contribute to a slowdown of the process of global warming, enhance energy security, provide opportunities to diversify agriculture production, raise rural incomes and enhance access to commercial energy. The increasing demand for biofuels will lead to higher commodity prices. Higher commodity prices will affect farmers and consumers even in countries without biofuels production tothe extent that these countries are linked to international markets. Biofuels demand can lead to higher food prices either through increased competition for inputs such as land, water, fertilizer and labour, or through international trade. Both the ethanol and biodiesel industries have experienced tremendous growth in the past few years. The production of these fuels is highly dependent on the...