Modelo Ive

Development and Application of an International Vehicle Emissions Model
Nicole Davis1, James Lents1, Mauricio Osses2, Nick Nikkila3, Matthew Barth4 International Sustainable Systems Research Center, 21573 Ambushers St. Diamond Bar, CA 91765 tel: (909) 860-2286, fax: (909) 396-0595, email: ndavis@issrc.org, jlents@issrc.org University of Chile, Department of Mechanical Engineering, Casilla 2777,Santiago, Chile email: maosses@ing.uchile.cl Global Sustainable Systems Research, 7146 Aloe Court, Rancho Cucamonga, CA 91739, USA tel: (909) 899-7972 College of Engineering Center for Environmental Research and Technology, University of California, Riverside 92521 tel: (909) 781-5782, fax: (909) 781-5790, email: barth@cert.ucr.edu
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TRB Paper No. 05-1844 Submission date: July 30th,2004; revised: November 16th, 2004; finalized: March 15, 2005 Revised for Transportation Research Record: 4/1/2004

Word count, including abstract, references, figures and tables: 7480 Abstract word count: 250

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ABSTRACT Vehicle growth in developing nations is increasing rapidly, making it necessary for these nations to address the transportation andenvironmental impacts of on-road mobile sources. To estimate the air quality impact of their fleet, many nations have adopted modified versions of U.S.- or European-based emissions models or factors. In most cases, these models can lead to significant errors in emissions estimates. To address this problem, a new on-road mobile source emissions model designed for use in developing countries has beendeveloped, called the International Vehicle Emissions (IVE) Model. The IVE model was developed jointly by researchers at the International Sustainable Systems Research Center and the University of California at Riverside. The IVE model uses local vehicle technology distributions, power-based driving factors, vehicle soak distributions, and meteorological factors to tailor the model to the localsituation. In addition, an intensive two-week field study was designed to collect the necessary fleet and activity data to populate the model with critical local information. The IVE model along with the field study process has proven to be highly effective in providing an improved estimate of mobile source emissions in an urban area and allows the effective analysis of local policy options. The studieshave served to transfer tools and knowledge on the process of creating and improving mobile source inventories in an efficient manner. The rationale behind the development of the model, development and application of the field studies, overview of the results to date, and planned next steps are described in this paper.

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1.

INTRODUCTION

Worldwidevehicle growth rates have risen rapidly in the past few years, and are projected to continue at this pace for some time (1, 2, 3). With this exponential growth it is necessary to have an accurate understanding of the transportation and environmental impact of the current and future fleet. In Los Angeles beginning in the 1960s, it was observed that transportation was a major contributor to the airquality problem. However, the existing infrastructure and mindset of the community limited the changes to primarily technological improvements. Thirty years later, stringent rules and regulations have drastically reduced the emissions burden in spite of the rapid growth rates, but not without a major and costly effort. Recognizing the imminent transportation issues and their resource limitations,many developing nations have begun using modified versions of U.S.- or European based emissions models and factors in the absence of readily available local information to predict their vehicle fleet’s emissions. While these approaches provide a baseline estimate of on-road emissions, there are many disadvantages of modifying these highly region-specific models and data to outside regions. U.S....