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World trade expanded in 2011 by 5.0%, a sharp (fuerte) deceleration from the 2010 rebound of 13.8%, and growth will slow further still to 3.7% in 2012, WTO economists project. They attributed the slowdown to the global economy losing momentum due to a number of shocks, including the European sovereign (soberano) debt crisis. |

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> 2012 press releases   | A significant braking of trade expansion had been forecast for 2011, but multiple economic setbacks (contratiempos) during the year dampened (humedecido) growth beyond (más allá de) expectations and led (llevó) to a stronger than anticipated easing in the fourth quarter. “More than three years have passed since the trade collapse of 2008-09, but theworld economy and trade remain fragile. The further slowing of trade expected in 2012 shows that the downside risks remain high. We are not yet out of the woods (bosque),” WTO Director General Pascal Lamy said.“The WTO has so far deterred (disuadido) economic nationalism, but the sluggish (lento) pace of recovery raises concerns that a steady trickle of restrictive trade measures could graduallyundermine the benefits of trade openness. It is time to do no harm (daño). WTO members should turn their attention to revitalizing the trading system and to ensuring (garantizar) such a scenario does not materialize.”WTO economists cautioned that preliminary trade figures for 2011 and forecasts for 2012 (Chart 1 and Table 4) were difficult to gauge (medir) due to the extraordinary levels of volatilityin financial markets and in the broader economy for the last few years.The preliminary figure of 5.0% for world merchandise trade growth in 2011 is down 0.8 points from their most recent forecast update in September 2011. These figures are in “real” terms, ie, adjusted to account for inflation and exchange rate fluctuations.Chart 1: Growth in volume of world merchandise trade and GDP, 2005-13 a(Annual % change)
a  Figures for 2012 and 2013 are projections.
Source: WTO Secretariat.The present trade forecast assumes global output growth of 2.1% in 2012 at market exchange rates, down from 2.4% in 2011, based on a consensus of economic forecasters. However, there are severe downside risks for growth that could have even greater negative consequences for trade if they came to pass. Theseinclude a steeper (más pronunciada) than expected downturn in Europe, financial contagion (contagio) related to the sovereign debt crisis, rapidly rising oil prices, and geopolitical risks.Recent production data suggest that the European Union may already be in recession, and even China’s dynamic economy appears to be growing more slowly in 2012. Economic prospects have improved in the UnitedStates and Japan as labour market conditions improve in the former and business orders pick up in the latter, but these positives will only partly make up for the earlier negatives.Developed economies exceeded expectations with export growth of 4.7% in 2011 while developing economies (for the purposes of the analysis this includes the Commonwealth of Independent States, or CIS) did worse than expected,recording an increase of just 5.4%. In fact, shipments from developing economies other than China grew at slightly (ligeramente) slower pace than exports from the developed economies that included disaster-struck Japan. The relatively strong performance of developed economies was driven by a robust 7.2% increase in exports from the United States, as well as a 5.0% expansion in exports from theEuropean Union. Meanwhile, Japan’s 0.5% drop in exports detracted (restado) from the average for developed economies overall.Several adverse developments disproportionately affected developing economies, including the interruption of oil supplies from Libya that caused African exports to tumble (caer) 8% last year, and the severe flooding (inundación) that hit Thailand in the fourth quarter. The...