Presupuesto

Although droughts in the Corn Belt of the US come normally every 10 years or so, the last major drought in the Corn Belt of the US was in 1988. For the next 23 years there was no drought. It has beenso long that many professionals in the animal industries have no memory of a drought. Up until a month ago it looked as though 2012 was going to be at least a fairly good year for crops. Suddenly, inJune, under blistering temperatures, the US crop started to deteriorate. Although it is too early to tell for sure, it appears that a full scale drought is developing that could rival that of 1988.The US Seasonal Drought Outlook now shows drought clear across the Corn Belt from west to east skipping only Minnesota and part of Wisconsin for the period from July 5th to September 30th. Shortrange forecasts also show a marked scarcity of rain.






In hindsight it is clear how the elements were in place for a disaster. The winter was mild and dry. Crops were planted earlyinto relatively dry soil. All that was needed for a great crop was some rain. Alas, instead of rain, record high temperatures started to destroy the crop.

Perhaps one of the most telling graphs isthat of corn crop conditions. On June 3rd crop conditions were the best since 1990; by June 17th they were the worst since 1990. Now they are the worst since 1988.

In 1988, corn in good orexcellent condition dropped until July and leveled off. In that year the crop ended up 25% below trend. If the same percentage decline should happen this year, the harvest would yield only 120 bushels. Thatcompares to the 166 bushels predicted by the USDA as recently as June 12th.




To understand what happened in the last month consider that during June the Corn Belt had 10 days of widespreadrecord high temperatures and total average precipitation was the driest since 1936. The combination of dry soil to start with, lack of rain and record high temperature caused the current crisis. The...