Technology roadmapping—a planning framework for evoltion and revolution

Technological Forecasting & Social Change 71 (2004) 5 – 26

Technology roadmapping—A planning framework for evolution and revolution
Robert Phaal*, Clare J.P. Farrukh, David R. Probert
Department of Engineering, University of Cambridge, Mill Lane, Cambridge, CB2 1RX, UK Received 9 May 2003; received in revised form 20 May 2003; accepted 26 May 2003

Abstract Technology roadmapping is aflexible technique that is widely used within industry to support strategic and long-range planning. The approach provides a structured (and often graphical) means for exploring and communicating the relationships between evolving and developing markets, products and technologies over time. It is proposed that the roadmapping technique can help companies survive in turbulent environments by providinga focus for scanning the environment and a means of tracking the performance of individual, including potentially disruptive, technologies. Technology roadmaps are deceptively simple in terms of format, but their development poses significant challenges. In particular the scope is generally broad, covering a number of complex conceptual and human interactions. This paper provides an overview ofthe origins of technology roadmapping, by means of a brief review of the technology and knowledge management foundations of the technique in the context of the fields of technology strategy and technology transitions. The rapidly increasing literature on roadmapping itself is presented in terms of a taxonomy for classifying roadmaps, in terms of both organizational purpose and graphical format. Thisillustrates the flexibility of the approach but highlights a key gap—a robust process for technology roadmapping. A fast-start method for technology roadmapping developed by the authors is introduced and described. Developed in collaboration with industry, this method provides a means for improved understanding of the architecture of roadmaps and for rapidly initiating roadmapping in a variety oforganizational contexts. This paper considers the use of the roadmaps from two main perspectives. The first is a company perspective: roadmaps that allow technology developments to be integrated with business planning, and the impact of new technologies and market developments to be assessed. The second perspective is multiorganizational: roadmaps that seek to capture the environmental landscape,threats and opportunities for a particular group of stakeholders in a technology or application area. Two short

* Corresponding author. E-mail address: rp108@eng.cam.ac.uk (R. Phaal). 0040-1625/$ – see front matter D 2003 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. doi:10.1016/S0040-1625(03)00072-6

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R. Phaal et al. / Technological Forecasting & Social Change 71 (2004) 5–26

illustrative casesshow the fast-start method in use in the context of disruptive technological trends from these two perspectives. D 2003 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Keywords: Technology roadmapping; Evolution; Revolution

1. Introduction Many managers are aware of the strategic importance of technology in delivering value and competitive advantage to their companies and the industrial networks in whichthey operate. These issues are becoming more critical as the cost, complexity and rate of technology change increases, and competition and sources of technology globalize. The management of technology for business benefit requires effective processes and systems to be put in place to ensure that existing and potential technological resources within the organization are aligned with its needs, nowand in the future. In addition, the impact of changes in technology and markets need to be assessed, in terms of potential threats and opportunities, including disruptive technologies and markets [1]. Technology roadmaps have great potential for supporting the development and implementation of integrated strategic business, product and technology plans, providing companies have the information,...