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Sociology
Materials of Conferences
FORESIGHT IS THE INSTRUMENT OF QUALITATIVE SOCIAL RESEARCH Iluhina V.V. TII TumGNGU Recently there increases the number of publications in mass-media and in scientific literature, which doesn’t correspond to base requirements of Professional code of sociologist and which doesn’t answer the existed ethic norms. There decreases the level of trust of population tothe presented information. Specialists at the sphere of sociology often present the results of their researches, which inadequately reflect actual condition of concern. [1] For the solving of this problem many scientifically-methodical advices, sociological centers, laboratories suggest while the development of program of research using the methods and technologies, at the base of which there existsources of verification. At actual period at foreign science there is widely spread the system of research - Foresight. Appeared near 30 years ago this technology became one of the base instruments of innovative development. About its effectiveness there testifies the degree of development of such countries as USA and Japan, which use this system during far not one decade. Modern science singlesout a majority of definitions of this term, for example, contained at the fundamental two-volume edition UNIDO: «Foresight is the systematical attempt to look in the long-term future of science, technology, economic and society with the aim of identification of the zones of strategic research and appearance of ancestral technologies, which are bright to bring the most big economical and socialbenefits» [2]. The deputy of director of the Institute of statistic researches and economy of knowledge State University – High School of Economics Alexander Sokolov, at his speech at the scientifically-research seminar «Perspectives of civil society in Russia: problems of estimation and choice», cited one of the most spread definition of this method: «Foresight is the systematical process of estimation ofmiddle and long-term horizons of development that is based on the participation of all interested parties, that is directed to the making of actual decisions and mobilization of combined actions» [3]. Foresight was projected as the program for the development of perspectives of scientifically-technical sphere. Its evolution promotes the use of sys-

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tem for different ecological andsocially-economical aims. From the ninetieth years of last century Foresight started to be used at the socially-political sphere. Last decade there are actively carried out the projects of cities: Dublin, Barcelona, Stuttgart; projects of social development of countries: Great Britain, Austria, Finland, France. Foresight becomes an instrument for forming of social reality. Countries that pretend to theleadership at the modern world began to work to the creation of their social future and began to transform outdated institutes, through the way of «prediction». Properly, Foresight is not a method or technology, Foresight is the practice of use of all existed methods of research, development of programs of development, researches of future, prognostic etc in compliance with the defined principles. Theaim of Foresight consists in the idea that to promote forming of necessary potential (scientific, innovative, technological, human), and also new nets between different structures, which were able to develop and realize strategies of preemptive character [4]. There exist several types of Foresight, which in compliance with the degree and sphere of use subdivide into: national, interregional,corporative, regional, sectoral, subject and other. Depending on classification type system provides for the choice of defined method of prediction and research: brainstorm, expert questionnaires; method of Delphi; method of critical technologies etc). This system can be used as the technology of any sociological research, depending on stated tasks. If the base aim of work is not the solving of...