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Simulation Modelling Practice and Theory 16 (2008) 315–328 www.elsevier.com/locate/simpat

A queueing model of maritime traffic in Bosporus Straits
Dimitrios Mavrakis, Nikolaos Kontinakis *
Energy Policy and Development Centre (KEPA), National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, KEPA Building Panepistimiopolis, 157 84 Athens, Greece Received 26July 2005; received in revised form 20 August 2007; accepted 28 November 2007 Available online 5 December 2007

Abstract The Bosporus Straits are among the most crowded and potentially dangerous, waterways in the world traversing urban areas of over 12 million people. Their narrow and winding shape, along with strong surface and counter deep water sea currents hinders the navigation. In thisarticle, a queuing model of maritime traffic in the Bosporus Straits is presented. Physical characteristics of the waterway and applied maritime regulations are integrated into the model. In a number of scenarios, simulation of the traffic, based on a set of historical data, is performed and the corresponding results are presented. Ó 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Keywords: Bosporus Straits;Maritime traffic; Simulation; Traffic scenarios

1. Introduction 1.1. Straits description The Straits comprised of the Bosporus Straits, the Dardanelles Straits, and the Sea of Marmara, form a water route of great strategic and economic importance between the Black Sea and the Mediterranean. The Bosporus Straits lies between the Black Sea to the North, and the Sea of Marmara to the South. Bosporus isapproximately 31 km long, with an average width of 1500 m and it is only 700 m wide at its narrowest point. It has many sharp turns, some of them more than 45° while a constant surface current directed from the Black Sea to the Sea of Marmara and a deep water counter current further hinder navigation (see Fig. 1). This narrow channel is one of the busiest waterways in the world. An average of 50 000vessels transit the Bosporus annually, along with hundreds of passenger, fishing, and leisure crafts, which daily cross the Bosporus from one side to the other [15,16].

*

Corresponding author. Tel.: +30 210 727 5835; fax: +30 210 727 5828. E-mail addresses: epgsec@kepa.uoa.gr (D. Mavrakis), nkonti@kepa.uoa.gr (N. Kontinakis).

1569-190X/$ - see front matter Ó 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rightsreserved. doi:10.1016/j.simpat.2007.11.013

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D. Mavrakis, N. Kontinakis / Simulation Modelling Practice and Theory 16 (2008) 315–328

Fig. 1. Bosporus Straits’ geography.

Bosporus traverses through the city of Istanbul, an urban area of over 12 million people. Moreover, Istanbul is declared a ‘‘World Heritage City” by UNESCO and a maritime accident near its centre might have negativerepercussions to some of the world’s most important monuments [15]. 1.2. Traffic regulations in the Straits The passage of vessels in and through the Straits is governed by the 1936 Montreux Convention. According to that, all merchant vessels enjoy, in principle, complete freedom of passage and navigation by day and night, without being subject to any ‘formalities’ except for sanitary controls andoptional towage and pilotage services. In 1994, Turkey declaring its concerns for the safety of navigation and the protection of its coastal population and environment, introduced the ‘‘Maritime Traffic Regulations for the Turkish Straits and the Marmara Region”. It also established ‘‘Traffic Separation Schemes” (TSS) in the Straits, which follow a corresponding IMO scheme. To ensure the transit ofvessels that, assumingly, cannot comply with the TSS, the Turkish Regulations contain a number of provisions that suspend two-way traffic or nighttime traffic for large tankers, regulate traffic to maintain a safe distance between vessels, etc. [3,4,16]. These provisions are especially strict for the larger tankers or vessels carrying dangerous cargo, resulting to waiting times in the Straits entrances...