Shale Gas

THE GLOBAL ANTI-FRACKING MOVEMENT
WHAT IT WANTs, HOW IT OpERATEs ANd WHAT’s NExT

Managing Risk | Maximising Opportunity

published by Control Risks, Cottons Centre, Cottons Lane, London sE1 2QG. Control Risks Group Limited (‘the Company’) endeavours to ensure the accuracy of all information supplied. Advice and opinions given represent the best judgement of the Company, but subject tosection 2 (1) Unfair Contract Terms Act 1977, the Company shall in no case be liable for any claims, or special, incidental or consequential damages, whether caused by the Company’s negligence (or that of any member of its staff) or in any other way. Copyright: Control Risks Group Limited 2012. All rights reserved. Reproduction in whole or in part prohibited without the prior consent of the Company.photo © pA page 4.

TABLE OF CONTENTs
IntROductIOn Gasland GOes GlObal What the antI-fRackInG MOveMent Wants hOW the antI-fRackInG MOveMent OpeRates What’s next? Argentina Mexico India Ukraine China hOW can the IndustRy RespOnd? antI-fRackInG actIvIsM RIsk ReGIsteR 1 2 3 6 10 10 11 11 11 11 13 14

EsTIMATEd RECOVERABLE sHALE GAs REsERVEs
CANADA

388

DENMARK

23

SWEDEN NORWAYGERMANY

8

83

41

LITHUANIA

4

NETHERLANDS

17

POLAND

187 42

UNITED KINGDOM

20

UKRAINE

FRANCE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA

862

180

BULGARIA

42

MOROCCO

TURKEY

11

15

681
VENEZUELA COLOMBIA

MEXICO

ALGERIA

PAKISTAN LIBYA

1,275
INDIA

CHINA

231

19

11

290

51

63 226
AUSTRALIA PARAGUAY BRAZIL

BOLIVIA

48

396CHILE

64

62

SHALE GAS KEY Assessed basins with resource estimate Assessed basins without resource estimate Figures in trillion cubic feet

SOUTH AFRICA URUGUAY

21

485

ARGENTINA

774

source: Us Energy Information Administration, department of Energy, April 2011

THE GLOBAL ANTI-FRACKING MOVEMENT
WHAT IT WANTs, HOW IT OpERATEs ANd WHAT’s NExT
JONATHAN WOOd, sENIORGLOBAL IssUEs ANALysT

IntROductIOn Unconventional natural gas is often described as game-changing and transformative, a revolution heralding a golden age of cheap, plentiful energy for a resource-constrained world. But only if it makes it out of the ground. As shown by local bans in the Us and Canada, national moratoriums in France and Bulgaria, and tighter regulation in Australia and the UK,the global anti-fracking movement has mounted an effective campaign against the extraction of unconventional gas through hydraulic fracturing (‘fracking’). Meanwhile, the oil and gas industry has largely failed to appreciate social and political risks, and has repeatedly been caught off guard by the sophistication, speed and influence of anti-fracking activists. As unconventional gas developmentspreads worldwide, and becomes more central to government energy policy and corporate investment strategy, a better understanding of the anti-fracking movement – its goals, structure, methods and trajectory – is essential for companies, policymakers and other observers of the emergent energy boom.

cOntROl RIsks THE GLOBAL ANTI-FRACKING MOVEMENT

1

Gasland GOes GlObal The anti-frackingmovement did not start with Gasland, but would not have gone global without it. Armed with a vivid strapline – ‘Can you light your water on fire?’ – the 2010 Us documentary crystallised environmental concerns about hydraulic fracturing. More importantly, it provided a shared point of reference for anti-fracking groups worldwide, serving as a ready introduction to the issues and perspectives of theanti-fracking movement. In southern France, for example, anti-fracking collectifs routinely launched with a screening of Gasland, which was released in French cinemas two months before a national moratorium was adopted in mid-2011. Meanwhile, the first Bulgarian-language subtitles appeared in mid-2011 on video-sharing websites, prefacing the emergence of widespread anti-fracking protests. south...