Vulnerabilidades y riesgos

2nd Edition

Vulnerability and Risk Assessment

Disaster Management Training Programme

Vulnerability and Risk Assessment
2nd Edition

Module prepared by A.W. Coburn R.J.S. Sspence A. Pomonis Cambridge Architectural Research Limited
The Oast House, Malting Lane, Cambridge, United Kingdom

DHA
Disaster Management Training Programme 1994

This training module has been funded bythe United Nations Development Programme in collaboration with the Office of the United Nations Disaster Relief Coordinator for the Disaster Management Training Programme (DMTP) in association with the University of Wisconsin Disaster Management Center. The draft for this text was reviewed by Mary B. Anderson, Harvard University; Yasemin Aysan and Ian Davis, Oxford Polytechnic Disaster ManagementCentre; Stephen Bender, Organization of American States; Jose Luis Zeballos, Pan American Health Organization; and Ron Ockwell. Editorial services, including design, educational components and formatting, have been provided by InterWorks. Design consultation and desktop publishing have been provided by Artifax. Cover photo: from “Shelter After Disaster” by Ian Davis, fishermen’s houses on the banksof a river in Seoul Korea

The first edition of this module was printed in 1991. Utilization and duplication of the material in this module is permissible; however, source attribution to the Disaster Management Training Programme (DMTP) is required.

CONTENTS
UN reorganization and the DMT.................................................................... 6 Introduction.................................................................................................... 7
Part 1: Understanding risk ......................................................................... 9

Nothing in is safe ............................................................................................ 9 Definition of risk.......................................................................................... 11 Risk assessment and evaluation.................................................................... 12 How risky is it? The measurement of risk .................................................... 13 Risk and priorities: comparative risk ............................................................ 14 Perception of risk.......................................................................................... 14 Acceptable levels of risks ............................................................................. 18 Management of community risk ................................................................... 20 Risks of natural and technological hazards .................................................. 21 SUMMARY................................................................................................. 23
PART 2: Assessing risk and vulnerability .............................................. 25

Using risk in decision-making ...................................................................... 25 How is risk determined ................................................................................. 27 Presentation of risk....................................................................................... 28 Hazard evaluation ......................................................................................... 35 Vulnerability evaluation ............................................................................... 40 CASE STUDY —Part A .............................................................................. 43 Reducingvulnerability: robust societies ...................................................... 46 CASE STUDY —Part B .............................................................................. 47 SUMMARY .................................................................................................. 49
Part 3: Appraising disaster mitigation options .................. ................... 51

Development...