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Alternate Futures for 2025:

Security Planning to Avoid Surprise

A Research Paper Presented To Air Force 2025

by Col Joseph A. Engelbrecht, Jr., PhD Lt Col Robert L. Bivins Maj Patrick M. Condray Maj Merrily D. Fecteau Maj John P. Geis II Maj Kevin C. Smith April 1996

Disclaimer
2025 is a study designed to comply with a directive from the chief of staff of the Air Force toexamine the concepts, capabilities, and technologies the United States will require to remain the dominant air and space force in the future. Presented on 17 June 1996, this report was produced in the Department of Defense school environment of academic freedom and in the interest of advancing concepts related to national defense. The views expressed in this report are those of the authors and donot reflect the official policy or position of the United States Air Force, Department of Defense, or the United States government. This report contains fictional representations of future situations/scenarios. Any similarities to real people or events, other than those specifically cited, are unintentional and are for purposes of illustration only. Mention of various programs or technologiesthroughout this paper does not imply Air Force or DOD endorsement of either the mission, the program, or adoption of the technology. This publication has been reviewed by security and policy review authorities, is unclassified, and is cleared for public release.

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Contents
Chapter PageDisclaimer..........................................................................................................................................ii Illustrations........................................................................................................................................vi Tables..............................................................................................................................................viii Executive Summary............................................................................................................................ x 1 Introduction........................................................................................................................................... 1Purpose......................................................................................................................................... 1 Definitions.................................................................................................................................... 3 Overview...................................................................................................................................... 4Methodology......................................................................................................................................... 8 Approach...................................................................................................................................... 8 Metrics for Success ...................................................................................................................... 9 Selecting the Drivers.................................................................................................................... 9 Defining the Drivers ................................................................................................................... 10 American World View.......................................................................................................... 10 ∆ TeK................................................................................................................................... 10 World Power Grid................................................................................................................ 11 Creating the Strategic Planning Space ........................................................................................ 11 Naming and Selecting Worlds of...
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