Bachillerato

Can the US Retain Primacy?
Robert J. Lieber
Robert J. Lieber is Professor of Government and International Affairs at Georgetown
University. He is the author or editor of fourteen books on international relations and US
foreign policy. His most recent is The American Era: Power and Strategy for the 21st
Century.
There is a widespread belief today that America is in decline. Standard & Poor’srecent downgrading of America’s long-term credit rating from AAA to AA-plus
is but the latest occasion for an outpouring of pessimistic statements. Proponents
of that view argue that the United States as a society, economy, and political
power is weakening and that its international primacy is ebbing as a result of the
rise of others—especially China.1 To be sure, the US faces both seriousdomestic
problems and a significantly changed global environment, yet in evaluating
America’s power position, it is essential to think broadly and long term. In this
regard, it is sobering to consider how varied and volatile previous assessments
have been. Observers in the US and abroad have periodically offered gloomy and
even dire assertions about America. Yet time after time, these haveproven to be
far too pessimistic, even embarrassingly so.
True, there has been a degree of erosion in America’s economic and military
power relative to other countries. However, the margin of strength vis-a-vis
other international actors has been so wide that despite some attrition, the US
still remains in a unique position as compared with other countries. In contrast
to the British experienceof imperial decline a century ago, America continues
to possess a substantial edge, whether measured in terms of its share of world
GDP, depth and size of financial markets, technology, demography, or military
power projection. In the percentage of GDP devoted to defense it is not truly
overstretched. Even with the costs of war in Afghanistan and continuing military
commitments in Iraq andelsewhere, current defense spending at 4.9 percent of
GDP remains well below Cold War levels, which averaged 8.7 percent in the
1960s, 5.9 percent in the 1970s, and 5.8 percent in the 1980s.2
Those who focus on current problems and bitter political debates often lose sight
of America’s strengths: The US has the world’s third largest population, enjoys a
more favorable demographic profile thanChina and most other major countries
except India, and is the one country in the world that is simultaneously big and rich.
America’s great research universities and its scientific facilities are unrivaled. Its

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competitiveness remains in the top rank, matched only by a few smaller countries
such as Singapore and Finland. Americacontinues to be a magnet for talented
immigrants from all over the world. The American political system, warts and all,
remains flexible and accountable to the public while maintaining constitutional
liberties and the rule of law. Time and again, when faced with serious crises, the
country has eventually found a way to respond. And contrary to Fareed Zakaria’s
claim that success has made it“sclerotic,” a capacity for flexibility, adaptability,
and innovation is likely to continue to serve it well.
The Prediction Problem
Long-term predictions are notoriously hard to get right, as evident in repeated
warnings and prophecies about American decline from the late eighteenth century
to the present. Samuel Huntington, writing nearly a quarter century ago, identified
no fewer than five wavesof contemporary declinism: in 1957–58 after the Soviet
launching of Sputnik; in 1969–71 when President Richard M. Nixon proclaimed
the end of the bipolar world and abandoned the gold standard; in 1973–74 in the
aftermath of the Yom Kippur War and a disruptive oil shock; in the late 1970s
after Vietnam, Watergate, and a surge in Soviet assertiveness; and in 1987, with
major budget and trade...