Blackberries 2009 prices

Just What’s Happening Out There?  Blackberry Volume and Price Behavior in  Blackberry Volume and Price Behavior in Shipping Markets
Mike Thomsen University of Arkansas University of Arkansas

Overview of main topics Overview of main topics
Market growth over time Market growth over time Seasonal price patterns Long‐term price trends i d Inferences about market demand that can be drawn from these trends • Implications for direct markets p • • • •

Information about blackberry markets Information about blackberry markets
• Sources of information
– USDA’s Agricultural Marketing Service
• Shipment Volume • Prices at shipping points • Prices at terminal markets (major US cities) l k ( )

– United States International Trade Commission – Various private information providers

•Issues with this information h h f
– Not all regions report price and shipment information to USDA  and reporting can be inconsistent – Price information is not attached to volume in terminal markets f h d l l k – Potential for discrepancies between information from different  governmental agencies

Met tric Tons 1,000 2,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 3,000 3 000 0Source: US International Trade Commission Imports from Mexico, Guatemala, Chile, and Costa Rica by Month  (September 1990 ‐ August 2009) ( )
Month Sep p 1990 Ma ar 1991 Sep p 1991 Ma ar 1992 Sep p 1992 Ma ar 1993 Sep p 1993 Ma ar 1994 Sep p 1994 Ma ar 1995 Sep p 1995 Ma ar 1996 Sep p 1996 Ma ar 1997 Sep p 1997 Ma ar 1998 Sep p 1998 Ma ar 1999 Sep p 1999 Ma ar 2000 Sep p 2000 Ma ar 2001 Sep p 2001 Ma ar 2002 Sep p 2002 Ma ar 2003Sep p 2003 Ma ar 2004 Sep p 2004 Ma ar 2005 Sep p 2005 Ma ar 2006 Sep p 2006 Ma ar 2007 Sep p 2007 Ma ar 2008 Sep p 2008 Ma ar 2009

Imports have been a key driver of market  growth

Mexico displaced other importers in  the late 1990s h l
Blackberry Imports from Selected Countries  (Marketing Year Totals) (Marketing Year Totals) 2,000 M Metric Tons 1,500 1 500 1,000 500 0 1990‐91 1 1991‐92 21992‐93 3 1993‐94 4 1994‐95 5 1995‐96 6 1996‐97 7 1997‐98 8 1998‐99 9 1999‐2000 0 2000‐01 1 2001‐02 2 2002‐03 3 2003‐04 4 2004‐05 5 2005‐06 6 2006‐07 7 2007‐08 8 2008‐09 9 Marketing Year Source: US International Trade Commission
Cyclospora –related  problems adversely  impact Guatemalan  imports

Mexico, Recent Values Marketing Year Metric Tons 2003-04 3,424 2004-05 9,467 2005-06 11,261 2006-0717,031 2007-08 21,970 2008-09 33,019

Mexico Guatemala Chile Costa Rica

Estimating price relationships Estimating price relationships
• Definitions:
– Trend: Long‐term direction in a price series – Seasonal pattern: Recurring pattern in prices over a  given period of time (e.g., over a marketing year) given period of time (e g over a marketing year)

• Issues:
–Shipping point price information is not reported for  pp g p p p South‐eastern states.   – Reported trends and seasonal price patterns that  follow are based on a statistical analysis of weekly  follow are based on a statistical analysis of weekly prices in six terminal markets (Atlanta, Boston,  Detroit, Miami, New York, and Philadelphia).  

Average shipment volume and seasonal price pattern (2004‐05 through 2008‐09 marketing years)
Estimate ed Seasona al Price Ind dex  (Five‐ ‐year Avera age = 100) Ship pments (Million Pound ds)
Window for GA blackberries is approx.  2.50 Week 22‐32 (late May‐early Aug) 2.00 1.50 1.00 0.50 0.00 0 00 On average, highest prices were observed  in weeks 36‐45 (Sept‐early Nov.)

160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0

1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 Week of the YearMexico Oregon Seasonal Price Index Seasonal Price Index California Chile Guatemala Costa Rica

Source: USDA Agricultural Marketing Service.  Seasonal price index is presenter’s  estimate based on weekly terminal market prices from 2004‐09.

Price trend and seasonality over the past decade 
Pric ce Indexes (2004‐2005 Market Yea ar = 100)

4.50 4.00 3.50 3.00 2.50 2.00 1.50...