Deforestacion

Contributed Paper

A Spatially Explicit Estimate of Avoided Forest Loss
´ JORDI HONEY-ROSES,†∗ KATHY BAYLIS,‡∗∗ AND M. ISABEL RAM´REZ§ I
†Department of Urban and Regional Planning, 111 Temple Buell Hall, 611 Taft Drive, University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign, Champaign, IL 61820, U.S.A. ‡Agriculture and Consumer Economics, 326 Mumford Hall, 1301 W. Gregory Drive, University of IllinoisUrbana-Champaign, Champaign, IL 61820, U.S.A., email kbaylis@illinois.edu §Centro de Investigaciones de Geogra´ Ambiental, Antigua Carretera a P´tzcuaro 8701, Universidad Nacional Aut´ noma de M´xico, ıa a o e 58190 Morelia, Michoac´n, M´xico a e

Abstract: With the potential expansion of forest conservation programs spurred by climate-change agreements, there is a need to measure the extent to whichsuch programs achieve their intended results. Conventional methods for evaluating conservation impact tend to be biased because they do not compare like areas or account for spatial relations. We assessed the effect of a conservation initiative that combined designation of protected areas with payments for environmental services to conserve over wintering habitat for the monarch butterfly (Danausplexippus) in Mexico. To do so, we used a spatial-matching estimator that matches covariates among polygons and their neighbors. We measured avoided forest loss (avoided disturbance and deforestation) by comparing forest cover on protected and unprotected lands that were similar in terms of accessibility, governance, and forest type. Whereas conventional estimates of avoided forest loss suggestthat conservation initiatives did not protect forest cover, we found evidence that the conservation measures are preserving forest cover. We found that the conservation measures protected between 200 ha and 710 ha (3–16%) of forest that is high-quality habitat for monarch butterflies, but had a smaller effect on total forest cover, preserving between 0 ha and 200 ha (0–2.5%) of forest with canopycover >70%. We suggest that future estimates of avoided forest loss be analyzed spatially to account for how forest loss occurs across the landscape. Given the forthcoming demand from donors and carbon financiers for estimates of avoided forest loss, we anticipate our methods and results will contribute to future studies that estimate the outcome of conservation efforts. Keywords: avoideddeforestation, matching estimators, Mexico, monarch butterfly habitat, payment for environmental services, REDD, spatial analysis
Una Estimaci´ n Espacialmente Expl´ o ıcita de la P´rdida de Bosque Evitada e Con la expansi´ n potencial de programas de conservaci´ n de bosques estimulados por los o o acuerdos de cambio clim´ tico, es necesario medir el alcance de los resultados de tales programas. Losm´todos a e convencionales para evaluar el impacto de la conservaci´ n tienden a ser sesgados porque no comparan areas o ´ similares ni consideran relaciones espaciales. Evaluamos el efecto de una iniciativa de conservaci´ n que o combin´ la designaci´ n de areas protegidas con pagos por servicios ambientales para conservar el h´ bitat o o a ´ invernal de la mariposa monarca (Danaus plexippus) enM´xico. Para ello, utilizamos un estimador espacial e que combina covariables entre pol´gonos y sus vecinos. Medimos la p´rdida de bosque evitada (perturbaci´ n ı e o y deforestaci´ n evitadas) mediante la comparaci´ n de cobertura forestal en tierras protegidas y no protegidas o o que eran similares en t´rminos de accesibilidad, gobernabilidad y tipo de bosque. Mientras las estimaciones econvencionales de p´rdida de bosque evitada sugieren que las iniciativas de conservaci´ n no protegieron e o la cobertura forestal, encontramos evidencia de que las medidas de conservaci´ n est´ n preservando la o a cobertura forestal. Encontramos que las medidas de conservaci´ n protegieron entre 200 y 710 ha (3-16%) o

Resumen:

∗ Current

∗∗ Address

address: Catalan Institute for Water...