La estrategia en el pacifico asiatico

Chapter
 1
  The
 Strategic
 Environment
 in
 the
 Asia-­‐Pacific
 Region
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 Paul
 Dibb
  Asia's
 future
 security
 is
 far
 from
 certain.
 Both
 optimistic
 and
 pessimistic
 views
 about
 the
  region
 exist.
 On
 the
 one
 hand,
 there
 is
 the
 belief
 that
 the
 future
 of
 a
 peaceful
 world
 belongs
 to
  Asia
 and
 that
 this
 region
 will
 come
 to outstrip
 the
 United
 States
 and
 Europe
 in
 terms
 of
  economic
 power.
 On
 the
 other
 hand,
 there
 is
 the
 view
 that
 Asia
 is
 a
 particularly
 dangerous
 part
  of
 the
 world
 where
 there
 is
 a
 risk
 that
 major
 war
 could
 occur.
 The
 very
 fact
 that such
 different
  "expert"
 opinions
 can
 be
 held
 about
 Asia
 should
 lead
 us
 to
 a
 great
 deal
 of
 caution
 about
  proclaiming
 with
 any
 certainty
 the
 region's
 strategic
 outlook.
 In
 judging
 the
 strategic
 future
 of
  Asia,
 one
 should
 learn
 from
 previous failures
 of
 intelligence
 assessment
 and
 refrain
 from
 over-­‐ confident,
 straight-­‐line
 extrapolations
 from
 past
 experience.
  A
 brief
 review
 of
 just
 how
 wrong
 past
 strategic
 pronouncements
 about
 Asia
 have
 been
 should
  demonstrate
 this
 point.
 After
 North
 Vietnam's victory
 over
 South
 Vietnam
 in
 1975,
 there
 was
  great
 fear
 that
 communism
 would
 spread
 quickly
 to
 the
 rest
 of
 Southeast
 Asia
 and
 that
 the
  "dominos"
 would
 fall.
 This
 did
 not
 occur
 and
 in
 fact
 the
 countries
 of
 the
 Association
 of
 South
  East Asian
 Nations
 (ASEAN)
 defeated
 their
 communist
 insurgencies
 and
 absorbed
 Vietnam
 into
  their
 membership.
 In
 the
 1980s,
 when
 Japanese
 economic
 growth
 seemed
 formidable,
 we
  were
 told
 that
 the
 coming
 "Japanese
 economic
 superpower"
 would
 soon
 outstrip
 the
 United  States
 in
 terms
 of
 gross
 national
 product
 (GNP).
 Instead,
 Japan
 has
 recorded
 barely
 one-­‐third
  of
 the
 economic
 growth
 rate
 of
 the
 United
 States
 since
 1990.
 More
 recently,
 there
 have
 been
  confident
 predictions
 that
 China
 will
 soon
 be
 the
 new economic
 giant
 and
 that
 its
 GNP
 will
 be
  bigger
 than
 that
 of
 the
 United
 States
 by
 2010.
 But
 by
 most
 measures
 China's
 economy
 is
 only
 a
  fraction
 of
 that
 of
 the
 United
 States,
 and
 is
 quickly
 slowing
 down
 as
 China
 struggles
 with the
  challenge
 of
 privatization
 of
 the
 state-­‐owned
 sector.
 Until
 the
 Asian
 economic
 crisis
 of
 1997-­‐ 98,
 we
 were
 being
 lectured
 about
 the
 so-­‐called
 Asian
 economic
 miracle
 and
 the
 fact
 that
  “Asian
 values”
 had
 found
 a
 successful
 new
 formula...