La subida del mercado del cafe y los fondos de inversion
Páginas: 7 (1721 palabras)
Publicado: 1 de mayo de 2011
The Hackett The Hackett Money Flow Report Money Flow Report
Commodity Market Analysis for Hedgers and Investors
February 04, 2011
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The Commercials Seem Ready To Panic
Growing Financial Success
Contents The Processors and Merchants Are Signaling With Their Buying That A Panic Parabolic Spike Phase May Be Near At Hand
Buy Coffee
Usually a bull market move in any commodityadvances to a point to where it takes on a spike/parabolic form that takes the breath away from everyone involved and sets a long term top. Such periods occur due to a confluence of farmer hoarding, end user panic buying and commercial futures short covering due to unpalatable margin calls. The buying maelstrom continues until all margin calls have been covered and all end users in trouble have beenfilled. Once this buyer exhaustion phase has been reached a buyer’s vacuum occurs where there is no one left to buy. As buying dries up prices start to fall and farmers who have counted their riches begin to worry that a top is in. Then farmers start to sell into this buying vacuum which further collapses prices into a complete crash as prior cash contracts are canceled thereby unleashing even moresupply onto the market. We have seen many markets go through this phase in 2008 and many markets like sugar and cotton are likely very near to a similar fate in 2011. Coffee, however, is still in the pre spike phase. One of the best ways to discern when such a panic buying spree may emanate is by looking at the processors /merchants net futures positions to see what it is that they are doing. Whenthis group starts to net buy into a rising prices trend it can be a signal of an impending eruption in price. If one looks at the chart on the next page, it seems to me that we may already be seeing the early phases of a melting up in coffee prices and a commercial buying panic. Notice how the processors and merchants have been steadily buying since late July 2010 even in the face of soaringprices. This is an indication that they are caught not owning enough coffee and not having enough coffee to sell. As you can see, an extended wedge formation chart pattern has developed. This pattern suggests that a major surge in processor/merchant buying could develop by the end of
Published By Hackett Financial Advisors, Inc. Shawn Hackett, President 9259 Equus Circle Boynton Beach, FL 33472 (888)535-5525 Email: Shawn@HackettAdvisors.com www.HackettAdvisors.com
Subscription Rate is $300 a year for 24 issues. To subscribe, please contact us via email or phone or register on our website. http://www.HackettAdvisors.com
Page 1 of 5
© Copyright 2007- 2011 Hackett Financial Advisors, Inc
The Hackett The Hackett Money Flow Report Money Flow Report
Commodity Market Analysis forHedgers and Investors
February 04, 2011
March 2011. Keeping close tabs on how this develops over the weeks ahead will be critical to catching to timing of a possible runaway advance. Processors and Merchants Net Futures Positions The bullish wedge formation suggests that a major panic buying spree can take place by the end of March2011
(FC Charts) Everyone has been suggesting recently thatthe true global currency in the world is gold. If this is true then would it not be better to price coffee in gold terms to seek a better relative value? If one does this, which the chart below illustrates, coffee prices remain near 40 year lows when priced in gold. It would be hard to imagine that the coffee bull market could be over when every other coffee bull market has seen levels relative togold of at least .60. This continues to suggest, along with the very low relative price of coffee to the CCI, that coffee remains dirt cheap. Getting back to the notion of projecting when a parabolic coffee price rise might begin, many times it can be helpful to notice periods when coffee is outperforming gold. Such times usually suggest that a major psychological shift has taken place and that...
Commodity Market Analysis for Hedgers and Investors
February 04, 2011
\
The Commercials Seem Ready To Panic
Growing Financial Success
Contents The Processors and Merchants Are Signaling With Their Buying That A Panic Parabolic Spike Phase May Be Near At Hand
Buy Coffee
Usually a bull market move in any commodityadvances to a point to where it takes on a spike/parabolic form that takes the breath away from everyone involved and sets a long term top. Such periods occur due to a confluence of farmer hoarding, end user panic buying and commercial futures short covering due to unpalatable margin calls. The buying maelstrom continues until all margin calls have been covered and all end users in trouble have beenfilled. Once this buyer exhaustion phase has been reached a buyer’s vacuum occurs where there is no one left to buy. As buying dries up prices start to fall and farmers who have counted their riches begin to worry that a top is in. Then farmers start to sell into this buying vacuum which further collapses prices into a complete crash as prior cash contracts are canceled thereby unleashing even moresupply onto the market. We have seen many markets go through this phase in 2008 and many markets like sugar and cotton are likely very near to a similar fate in 2011. Coffee, however, is still in the pre spike phase. One of the best ways to discern when such a panic buying spree may emanate is by looking at the processors /merchants net futures positions to see what it is that they are doing. Whenthis group starts to net buy into a rising prices trend it can be a signal of an impending eruption in price. If one looks at the chart on the next page, it seems to me that we may already be seeing the early phases of a melting up in coffee prices and a commercial buying panic. Notice how the processors and merchants have been steadily buying since late July 2010 even in the face of soaringprices. This is an indication that they are caught not owning enough coffee and not having enough coffee to sell. As you can see, an extended wedge formation chart pattern has developed. This pattern suggests that a major surge in processor/merchant buying could develop by the end of
Published By Hackett Financial Advisors, Inc. Shawn Hackett, President 9259 Equus Circle Boynton Beach, FL 33472 (888)535-5525 Email: Shawn@HackettAdvisors.com www.HackettAdvisors.com
Subscription Rate is $300 a year for 24 issues. To subscribe, please contact us via email or phone or register on our website. http://www.HackettAdvisors.com
Page 1 of 5
© Copyright 2007- 2011 Hackett Financial Advisors, Inc
The Hackett The Hackett Money Flow Report Money Flow Report
Commodity Market Analysis forHedgers and Investors
February 04, 2011
March 2011. Keeping close tabs on how this develops over the weeks ahead will be critical to catching to timing of a possible runaway advance. Processors and Merchants Net Futures Positions The bullish wedge formation suggests that a major panic buying spree can take place by the end of March2011
(FC Charts) Everyone has been suggesting recently thatthe true global currency in the world is gold. If this is true then would it not be better to price coffee in gold terms to seek a better relative value? If one does this, which the chart below illustrates, coffee prices remain near 40 year lows when priced in gold. It would be hard to imagine that the coffee bull market could be over when every other coffee bull market has seen levels relative togold of at least .60. This continues to suggest, along with the very low relative price of coffee to the CCI, that coffee remains dirt cheap. Getting back to the notion of projecting when a parabolic coffee price rise might begin, many times it can be helpful to notice periods when coffee is outperforming gold. Such times usually suggest that a major psychological shift has taken place and that...
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