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CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE U.S. Congress Washington, DC 20515

Douglas W. Elmendorf, Director

January 21, 2010

Honorable John M. Spratt Jr. Chairman Committee on the Budget U.S. House of Representatives Washington, DC 20515 Dear Mr. Chairman: As you requested, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) has analyzed both the funding needed to support an additional 30,000 troops in Afghanistanand the reduction in costs resulting from the ongoing withdrawal of U.S. forces from Iraq. The Department of Defense Appropriations Act, 2010 (Public Law 111-118) provides $130 billion for war-related operations in 2010. Based on recent trends in spending on overseas operations, the Department of Defense (DoD) would probably require further appropriations in 2010 to support an additional 30,000troops in Afghanistan as well as other war-related operations. The Cost of Additional Forces in Afghanistan CBO estimated the costs of increasing the number of troops in and around Afghanistan from about 70,000 at the end of fiscal year 2009 to about 100,000 by July of 2010, averaging 85,000 personnel for fiscal year 2010. The estimate assumes that the number of troops would begin to decline inAugust 2011 and that the additional personnel would be fully withdrawn by January 2012. On this timetable, an average of roughly 100,000 troops would be deployed in Afghanistan in fiscal year 2011. This scenario is consistent with the Administration’s plans to increase the number of U.S. troops in Afghanistan by 30,000 and to maintain that larger force throughout most of fiscal year 2011. Honorable John M. Spratt Jr. Page 2 Under that scenario, additional operating and personnel costs would total roughly $30 billion over the two-year period of fiscal years 2010 and 2011 (see Table 1). Another $1 billion in such costs would be incurred in the first quarter of fiscal year 2012 as the remaining additional personnel are withdrawn. About $5 billion would probably be needed in fiscal years 2012and 2013 to repair and replace equipment that was worn out, damaged, or destroyed during the deployment. In total, deploying an additional 30,000 personnel to Afghanistan would probably cost about $36 billion over the four-year period of 2010 through 2013, CBO estimates.
Table 1. Estimated Budget Authority Associated with an Increase of 30,000 Troops in Afghanistan, Fiscal Years 2010-2013 (inbillions of dollars)a

2010

2011

2012

2013

Total

Operations Personnel Other b Force Protection c Total
Source: Note: a.

6 1 2 4 13

12 2 2 1 17

1 * 2 0 3

0 0 3 0 3

19 3 9 5 36

Congressional Budget Office. *= less than $500 million.

Assumes that increase is achieved by July 2010 and that the additional personnel are withdrawn by January 2012. Includes funding formilitary intelligence programs, construction projects, support of coalition partners, the Commander’s Emergency Response Program, and repairing and replacing equipment that has been worn out, damaged, or destroyed. Includes funding for mine-resistant vehicles, body armor, mine countermeasures, and other protection systems.

b.

c.

To construct this estimate, CBO analyzed the $146 billion inappropriations provided in 2009 to support troops in and around Iraq and Afghanistan, and also analyzed reports of the Department of Defense’s (DoD’s) obligations in 2008 and 2009 for war-related activities in those regions. Costs per person in some categories, including operations, transportation, supplies, and services, were approximately 50 percent higher in Afghanistan than they were in Iraq.Costs per person in other categories, such as military compensation and equipment procurement, were roughly the same in both

Honorable John M. Spratt Jr. Page 3 regions. CBO estimated costs on the basis of the average number of personnel deployed during the year, rather than at a particular point in time. To estimate the additional cost of increasing the number of personnel in Afghanistan...
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