Proyeccion Y Objetivos De Ventas ( Ingles )

Capítulo 5
Proyecciones y Presupuestos de Ventas

Msc Dean Atanasovski

MANAGING SALES INFORMATION

“Our charge is to design, build, and implement decision support systems that help our field and marketing managers make business decisions.” Dan McKee Marketing decision support systems manager for Marion Merrell Dow, Inc.

FORECASTING MARKET DEMAND

A marketing decision support system(MDSS) is an ongoing, future-oriented structure designed to generate, process, store, and later retrieve information to aid decision making in an organization’s marketing program. It involves problem-solving technology composed of people, knowledge, software, and hardware “wired” into the sales management process.

USES OF SALES FORECASTS
A sales forecast is the estimated dollar or unit salesfor a specific future time period based on a proposed marketing plan and an assumed market environment.

A sales forecast is important for at least five reasons:
1. A sales forecast becomes a basis for setting and maintaining a production schedule – manufacturing. 2. It determines the quantity and timing of needs for labor, equipment, tools, parts, and raw materials – purchasing, personnel.3. It influences the amount of borrowed capital needed to finance the production and the necessary cash flow to operate the business – controller.
4. It provides a basis for sales quota assignments to various segments of the sales force – sales management.

5. It is the overall base that determines the company’s business and marketing plans, which are further broken down into specific goals –marketing officer.

FIGURE 5.1 PLANNING/FORECASTING/BUDGETING SEQUENCE

Marketing Plan

Sales Forecasts

Sales Force Budget

THE FORECASTING PROCESS
The forecasting process refers to a series of procedures used to forecast.

A market factor is an item or element that (1) exists in a market, (2) may be measured quantitatively, and (3) is related to the demand for a product or service.A market index is simply a market factor expressed as a percentage relative to some base figure.

FIGURE 5.2 THE FORECASTING PROCESS

Forecast Objective

Determine Dependent and Independent Variables

Develop Forecast Procedure

Select Forecast Analysis Method

Evaluate Results versus Forecast

Total Forecast Procedure
Present Assumptions about Data Gather and Analyze DataMake and Finalize Forecast

FIGURE 5.3 BASIC STEPS IN BREAKDOWN METHOD OF FORECASTING SALES

General Environment Forecast Industry Sales Forecast Company Sales Potential Company Sales Forecast Product Lines Individual Products Customers-Territories-Regions-Divisions-U.S.A.-World

for

Industry sales forecast, or market potential, is the estimated sales for all sellers. Company salespotential is the maximum estimated or potential sales the company may reach in a defined time period under given conditions.
The company’s share of the estimated sales for an entire industry is referred to as market share.

SALES FORECASTING METHODS
Two categories of sales forecasting methods exist:

• Survey methods are qualitative and include executive opinion, sales force composite, andcustomer’s intention surveys.
• Mathematical methods are test markets, market factors, naïve models, trend analysis, and correlation analysis.

FIGURE 5.4 THE MORE POPULAR OF MANY FORECASTING METHODS

Survey Methods

Mathematical Methods

Executive Opinion

User’s Expectation Build-toOrder

Test Market Naive
Moving Average

Regression Trend
Exponential Smoothing

Sales Force CompositeSURVEY FORECASTING METHODS

Four basic survey methods are
• Executive Opinion • Sales Force Composite • User’s Expectations • Build-to-Order

Executive Opinion
Executive forecasting is done in two ways: 1. By one seasoned individual (usually in a small company).

2. By a group of individuals, sometimes called a “jury of executive opinion.”

The group approach uses two methods:...