# Strategic decision analysis

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Strategic Decision Analysis

Seql Game Strats - Cuba.xlsx Cuban Missile Crisis - original

6/22/2011

Don't place missiles Cuban Missile Crisis Krushchev move 0

TRUE 0

u

1 0

Donothing Place missiles FALSE 0 Kennedy move 0

TRUE 0

v

0 0

Acquiesce Blockade FALSE 0 Escalate Acquiesce Air strike FALSE 0 Escalate Krushchev move 0 Krushchev move 0

TRUE 0

w0 x0 0 y0z0
0 0

0

FALSE 0 TRUE 0

FALSE 0

Players' preference rankings (high to low) Krushchev: v u w y z x Kennedy: w y u v x z

Strategic Decision Analysis

Seql Game Strats - Cuba.xlsx Cuba- count strategies

6/22/2011

Don't place missiles Cuban Missile Crisis Krushchev move 0

TRUE 0

1 0

Do nothing Place missiles FALSE 0 Kennedy move 0

TRUE 0

0 0

AcquiesceBlockade FALSE 0 Escalate Acquiesce Air strike FALSE 0 Escalate Krushchev move 0 Krushchev move 0

TRUE 0

0 0

FALSE 0 TRUE 0

0 0 0 0

FALSE 0

0 0

Strategy 1 2 3 4 5

Scenario if Kennedyorders Blockade: If Kennedy orders Air Stike: Don't place missiles. Place missiles, and… Place missiles, and… Place missiles, and… Place missiles, and… Acquiesce Acquiesce Escalate Escalate AcquiesceEscalate Acquiesce Escalate

2x2=4 combinations of alternatives after placing

Note: 1. To identify and count strategies, we don't need to know anybody's preferences. 2. Strategies are complete,contingent plans. They are not straight paths or endpoints; we can't count them by counting simple pieces of the tree.

Strategic Decision Analysis

Seql Game Strats - Cuba.xlsx Cuba - variation6/22/2011

Don't place missiles Cuban Missile Crisis VARIATION Krushchev move 0

TRUE 0

1 0

Do nothing Place missiles FALSE 0 Kennedy move 0

TRUE 0

0 0

Acquiesce Blockade FALSE 0Escalate Acquiesce Air strike FALSE 0 Escalate Procrastinate Krushchev move 0 Krushchev move 0

TRUE 0

0 0

FALSE 0 TRUE 0

0 0 0

FALSE 0 FALSE 0

Variation! Krushchev 0 has a new...