Analisis Multicriterio

Multi-criteria analysis: a manual

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community, opportunity, prosperity

Multi-criteria analysis: a manual

January 2009 Department for Communities and Local Government: London

Department for Communities and Local Government Eland House Bressenden Place London SW1E 5DU Telephone: 020 7944 4400 Website: www.communities.gov.uk © Crown copyright 2009 Copyright inthe typographical arrangement rests with the Crown. This publication, excluding logos, may be reproduced free of charge in any format or medium for research, private study or for internal circulation within an organisation. This is subject to it being reproduced accurately and not used in a misleading context. The material must be acknowledged as Crown copyright and the title of the publicationspecified. Any other use of the contents of this publication would require a copyright licence. Please apply for a Click-Use Licence for core material at www.opsi.gov.uk/click-use/system/online/pLogin.asp, or by writing to the Office of Public Sector Information, Information Policy Team, Kew, Richmond, Surrey TW9 4DU e-mail: licensing@opsi.gov.uk If you require this publication in an alternativeformat please email alternativeformats@communities.gsi.gov.uk Communities and Local Government Publications PO Box 236 Wetherby West Yorkshire LS23 7NB Tel: 0300 123 1124 Fax: 0300 123 1125 Email: communities@capita.co.uk Online via the Communities and Local Government website: www.communities.gov.uk January 2009 Product Code: 08ACST05703 ISBN: 978-1-4098-1023-0

Multi-criteria analysis: a manual |3

Contents
Preface Chapter 1 Chapter 2 The scope and objectives of this manual Appraisal and evaluation in government 2.1 Introduction 2.2 The decision making process 2.3 Identifying objectives 2.4 Identifying options for achieving the objectives 2.5 Identifying the criteria to be used to compare the options 2.6 Analysis of the options 2.7 Making choices 2.8 Feedback 2.9 Sequences of decisionsthrough time Chapter 3 Monetary-based techniques 3.1 Introduction 3.2 Financial analysis 3.3 Cost-effectiveness analysis 3.4 Cost-benefit analysis 3.5 Inclusion of the results of monetary analyses in an MCA framework Chapter 4 An overview of multi-criteria analysis techniques 4.1 Introduction 4.2 Criteria for selecting MCA techniques 4.3 Key features of MCA 4.4 Different types of MCA 4.5 Directanalysis of the performance matrix 4.6 Multi-attribute utility theory 4.7 Linear additive models 4.8 The Analytical Hierarchy Process 4.9 Outranking methods 4.10 Procedures that use qualitative data inputs 4.11 MCA methods based on fuzzy sets 4.12 Other MCA methods 4.13 Application of MCA in government 5 6 9 9 10 10 11 11 11 12 13 13 14 14 14 15 15 17 19 19 20 20 23 24 24 25 26 26 27 28 29 29

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Chapter 5

Decisions without weights: construction of a performance matrix 5.1 The stages of a multi-criteria analysis 5.2 Step 1: Establishing the decision context 5.3 Step 2: Identifying options 5.4 Step 3: Identifying criteria and sub-criteria 5.5 Step 4 and beyond (without scoring and weighting) 5.6 Step 4: Assessing performance levels (with scoring)30 30 32 32 32 39 41 46 46 49 71 73 73 77 78 90 101 109 112 115 118 121 127 131 138 140 141 146 149 154 161

Chapter 6

Multi-criteria decision analysis 6.1 What is MCDA? 6.2 Stages in MCDA 6.3 Uncertainty, Risk and MCDA

Chapter 7

Case studies 7.1 The new approach to appraisal for transport 7.2 UK applications of MCDA 7.3 The NAO case study: evaluation of overseas trade services 7.4The Nirex case study: appraisal of sites for further investigation as potential repositories for radioactive waste 7.5 Medium term revenue budget planning 7.6 Lessons from the MCDA case studies Appendix 1 Continuous MCA models (infinitely variable alternatives) Appendix 2 Non-compensatory methods Appendix 3 Multi-attribute utility models Appendix 4 Linear additive models Appendix 5 The analytical...