Realist Visions Of The End Of The Cold War:

The British Journal of Politics and International Relations
doi: 10.1111/j.1467-856x.2008.00357.x

BJPIR: 2009 VOL 11, 177–191

Realist Visions of the End of the Cold War: Morgenthau, Aron and Waltz
Marco Cesa
Although realist theory did not predict the end of the cold war, prominent realist scholars such as Hans Morgenthau, Raymond Aron and Kenneth Waltz did give some thought to theconditions under which the cold war might be settled. Both Aron and Morgenthau characterised the cold war as a combination of traditional power politics and ideological competition, but they differed on the relative weight of each component. For Morgenthau, a diplomatic settlement would deactivate the unsettling potential of the ideological conflict; for Aron, only the disappearance of the ideologicalconflict could pave the way to some lasting diplomatic settlement. For Waltz, ideology had little impact; the bipolar structure of the international system was the main variable on which both the cold war and its end depended.

Keywords: realism; cold war; Morgenthau; Aron; Waltz

Introduction
Realism as a whole has often been criticised for its failure to predict the events that have led tothe end of the cold war. Such an attitude, in turn, has triggered a lively debate on the virtues and flaws of realist theory. This article does not intend to add yet another argument to such a debate. Its focus is not on the ‘predictive power’ of realism. In fact, its focus is not even on realism as a whole. Although it may very well be true that realism did not predict the end of the cold war, anumber of realist scholars indeed had ‘visions’ of how the cold war might come to an end one day, and gave some thought to the conditions under which the east–west competition might be settled. While such views can hardly be regarded as ‘predictions’, they are nevertheless significant because of their conceptual—if not theoretical—dimension, that in turn reflects a broader assessment of the meaning ofthe cold war. Thus, rather than trying to offer yet another general version of ‘realist theory’, the article will concentrate on the work of three major scholars whose ideas have been highly influential in shaping the field of international relations: Hans Morgenthau, Raymond Aron and Kenneth Waltz. Although they all grounded their views in similar concepts—in this sense, they all belong to the sameschool of thought—each of them represents a different kind of realism; each developed and refined, for decades, his own interpretation of the cold war; finally, moving from those concepts and these interpretations, each had his own ‘vision’ of how the cold war might or would end. Accordingly, for each author, I will review some basic traits of his version of realist theory, I will discuss hispositions on the cold war and I will point out his views on the possible ways in which the cold war might be brought to a close.
© 2009 The Author. Journal compilation © 2009 Political Studies Association

The Cold War in Hans J. Morgenthau’s Thought
According to the first principle of political realism as presented in Politics among Nations (Morgenthau 1973 [1948]), politics is governed byobjective laws that have their roots in human nature. Selfishness and lust for power are, in turn, the basic components of Morgenthau’s picture of human nature. Since the lust for power is universal—‘there is no escape from the evil of power, regardless of what one does’ (Morgenthau 1973 [1948], 13)—it follows that politics is an unending struggle for power, and that ‘the aspiration for power over man ...is the essence of politics’ (Morgenthau 1946, 47). For a general theory of international politics, in addition, the concept of national interest defined in terms of power is essential: ‘as long as the world is politically organized into nations, the national interest is indeed the last word in international politics’ (Morgenthau 1951, 68). The possibility both to reconstruct past foreign policies...