Economia de brasil

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Brazil: Sustainable Growth
Min. Guido Mantega
April 2010


Brazil: one of the fastest growing economies in 2010
GDP growth forecast – selected countries – in % of GDP

* The Economist forecast ** Government forecast

Source: The Economist Produced by: Ministry of Finance


New social and economic paradigms Emphasis on a more robust growth Employment generation Socialinclusion and income distribution Investment enhancement Government encourages and promotes growth • Efficient stimulus programs • • • • •


Robust employment generation and more formal jobs
Net employment generation – in thousands of workers

* Government forecast of 1.8 million for 2010, of which 657,259 comprised within the accumulated year period up to Mar-2010

Source: CAGED /MTE Producedby: Ministry of Finance

2010: the smallest unemployment rate in a time series
Unemployment rate – in % of economically active population

Source: PME/IBGE Produced by: Ministry of Finance

New middle class and Brazilian unification
Social class distribution - in % of population

Source: MDS, MTE and CPS/FGV Produced by: Ministry of Finance

Social classes diversify consumption
%change in the purchased value (food, beverages, hygiene and cleaning) * Average monthly household income is specified below

* Class D/E: from R$ 0 to R$ 1,115 Class C: from R$ 1,115 to R$ 4,807 Class A/B: from R$ 4,807 and on

Source: Kantar World Panel Produced by: Ministry of Finance


Highest employment rate in the world
Net employment generation forecast for Q2 2010* Gap withincompanies that expect job raising (43%) as opposed to the ones which expect a reduction (5%) in Q2 2010 (% between Q1:2010 and Q4:2009)

* Expected employment generation from Manpower Consulting research 8for the Q2 2010 based on interviews with 850 companies in Brazil

Source: Manpower Consulting Produced by: Ministry of Finance


Purchasing power of minimum wage
Today’s minimum wagebuys more products – in numbers of staple food baskets

Source: DIEESE Produced by: Ministry of Finance


Dinamycs of Brazilian domestic demand
Retail sales – selected countries - % change from 2008 to 2009

Fontes: IDV Produced by: Ministry of Finance


Retail Sales - PMC
% change from preceding every 12-month period

* Including automobiles, motorcycles, parts and pieces,and construction materials

Source: IBGE Produced by: Ministry of Finance


Government action is essential • Infrastructure stimulus: PAC • PAC is a strategic investment program with management and infrastructure planned actions • Industrial sector policy • Income distribution • Acting and efficient State-owned companies (BNDES, BB, CAIXA, BNB, Petrobras)


Investment enhancement% change from preceding year


* Ministry of Finance Forecasts

Source: IBGE Produced by: Ministry of Finance


Federal Government and State-Owned Companies Investment
Cash basis - % of GDP


* Ministry of Finance Forecasts

Source: Ministry of Finance Produced by: Ministry of Finance


Industry investment volume
Industry resource distribution - realized andplanned by sector of activity


Source: BNDES Produced by: Ministry of Finance

Decade of infrastructure to come
Investments in R$ billions


Source: Exame Infrastructure Yearbook 2009-2010 Produced by: Ministry of Finance


Construction growth in Brazil
Average number of contracts by presidential terms

Source: Abecip and CAIXA Produced by: Ministry of Finance

182010: Sustainable and quality growth

• Growth is sustainable because it doesn’t create macroeconomic imbalances • Inflation under control – efficient inflation targeting regime • Robust fiscal rules – primary surplus target of 3.3 % of GDP in 2010 and continuous reduction in net public debt • Low external vulnerability


Evolution of inflation index, target and expectations%
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