Economia

PROGRAM TSW

REVISED REFERENCE MANUAL
July 2004

Gianluca Caporello and Agustín Maravall Banco de España

Thanks are due to Fernando Sánchez Gálvez, Domingo Pérez Cañete, Jorge Carrillo Moya and Nieves Morales Villalba for their varied and important help.

ABSTRACT ....................................................................................................... 13 1 2 3INTRODUCTION ........................................................................................ 9 INSTALLATION ........................................................................................ 11 USER INSTRUCTIONS ........................................................................... 12 3.1 MAIN WINDOW....................................................................................... 12 3.2 LOADING A SERIES.................................................................................. 13 3.3 INPUT FILE FORMAT................................................................................ 14 3.3.1 Excel ................................................................................................ 14 3.3.2 text................................................................................................... 16 3.3.3 Regression Variables ....................................................................... 16 3.4 MODEL SPECIFICATION........................................................................... 16 3.4.1 +Model Button................................................................................. 16 3.4.2 Checking Input Parameters............................................................. 19 3.5 REGRESSION VARIABLES ........................................................................ 19 3.5.1 Regression Variable Window........................................................... 19 3.5.2 Parameter Iuser ............................................................................... 20 3.6 EXECUTION OF THEPROGRAMS.............................................................. 23 3.7 OUTPUT FILES: ONE SERIES (ITER = 0) .................................................. 24 3.7.1 Main output files .............................................................................. 24 3.7.2 Out-Tables (Output Series) .............................................................. 25 3.7.3 Summary Output for each Series..................................................... 27 3.8 GRAPH................................................................................................... 30 3.9 SAVE / LOAD ......................................................................................... 32 3.10 MANY SERIES AND/OR MODELS ............................................................ 33 3.10.1 The Iter Parameter........................................................................ 33 3.10.2 Multiple-Series Output Files.......................................................... 34 3.10.3 Aggregate Summary Results .......................................................... 36 3.11 OUTPUT FILES OPTIONS ........................................................................ 41 3.11.1 Complete List of Output Files........................................................ 41 3.11.2 Parameter Out ............................................................................... 43 3.12 PROGRAM TERROR ............................................................................... 43 4 INPUT PARAMETERS ............................................................................ 45 4.1 AUTOMATIC PROCEDURE....................................................................... 45 4.2 TRAMO PARAMETERS ............................................................................. 45 4.2.1 Arima model .................................................................................... 45 4.2.2 Calendar Effects .............................................................................. 47 4.2.3 Outliers...