Koko

THE EUROPEAN UNION HAS GONE TO WAR WITH IRAN.
This week, the European Union has gone to war with Iran. Of course it has not made any formal declaration or even an undeclared use of military force.But the EU decision to apply an embargo on Iranian oil imports, ban new contracts and freeze the assets of the Central Bank of Iran is certainly an act of war and may well provoke military hostilitiesthat are intended to prevent the sanctions.

Oil exports account for over 50% of Iranian government revenues and about 80 percent of its foreign exchange earnings. And the EU as a whole, is thesecond largest customer of Iran, accounting for about a quarter of its exports. Therefore, unless other customers neutralize the actions of the EU to increase its own imports from Iran (and according tothe evidence coming from China, Japan and South Korea is probably not the case), the decision of the EU, together with existing measures of the United States can reach almost to impose "cripplingsanctions" that threatened the Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton, but could not be achieved without European cooperation.
The threat to close the Strait of Hormuz

If at the end happens, thenthe Iranian regime, which already faces high inflation and rapid depreciation of its currency, will be forced to react. One possibility is that yield and basically dismantle its nuclear weapons program.This obviously would be the result that Europeans and others hope to achieve with sanctions (or even the credible threat of sanctions).

But it is equally possible that Iran, feeling trapped in adesperate attack to scare the Europeans to give reverse its position or, at least, generate so much hysteria in the oil market with rising prices could get the same income even with a smaller volume ofexports.

One way to do this is try to close the Strait of Hormuz, something that Iran has already threatened. But this gesture is probably beyond its capacity and in any case would nullify...