La Importaciones De Maíz Blanco

FDS-12d Apr 12, 2012

Feed Outlook
Thomas Capehart tcapehart@ers.usda.gov Edward Allen ewallen@ers.usda.gov

China’s Corn Use Revised, Reducing Stocks

Contents Domestic Outlook Intl. Outlook Contacts and Links Tables Supply and Demand Feed and Residual Grain Prices Byproduct Prices Food and Industrial Milling Products U.S. Imports U.S. Exports Web Sites WASDE Grain Circular WorldAgricultural Production Corn Briefing Room -------------The next release is May 14, 2012. -------------Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board.

The U.S. feed grain balance sheet is unchanged from last month. The quarterly Stocks Report confirmed continued tight feed grain supplies as of March 1. The Prospective Plantings report pegged 2012 intended plantings of corn at 95.9 million acres, anincrease of 3.9 million acres from 2011. There are numerous, mostly offsetting changes this month to global coarse grain production and trade. Revised corn use for China for 2010/11 and 2011/12 combines to reduce corn ending stocks. China’s corn feed use for 2010/11 is increased 4 million tons to 128 million, reflecting strong demand for meat. However, China’s 2011/12 corn feed use is reduced 3million tons to 131 million due to the strong increase in wheat feeding and ongoing animal disease problems, especially in pigs. These changes in use leave China’s projected ending stocks down 1 million tons to 57 million. Due to reduced production prospects, corn stocks are also reduced this month for Argentina, South Africa, and Mexico.
Figure 1

U.S. feed grain average prices received byfarmers
Dol./bu 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 1988/89 90/91 92/93 94/95 96/97 98/99 2000/01 02/03 04/05 06/07 08/09 10/11
Barley Oats Sorghum Corn

Source: USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service, Quick Stats.

Domestic Outlook
Domestic Supply and Use Unchanged From Last Month
Projected U.S. feed grain supplies for 2011/12 remain at 358.4 million metric tons this month, unchanged from last month’sprojection but down 5.8 percent from 2010/11. Total use of the four feed grains for 2011/12 is expected to be 335.5 million metric tons, 3.7 percent lower than last marketing year. With 2011/12 production plus imports less than demand, ending stocks are projected at 22.9 million metric tons, 29 percent below last marketing year, and the lowest carryout since the 1995/96 marketing year. The 2011/12feed and residual use projection for the four feed grains plus wheat is increased by 0.9 million metric tons from last month due to higher forecast feed wheat use. At 127.2 million metric tons, it is projected 3.6 million below the 2010/11 total of 129.9 million. Grain consuming animal units (GCAUs) in 2011/12 are projected at 93.65 million units, 0.3 percent below last month’s projection. Feed andresidual use per animal unit is 1.36 metric tons, slightly higher than last month and 0.04 million metric tons less than the 2010/11 marketing year.

Food, Seed, and Industrial Use
Projected 2011/12 industrial use of corn other than for ethanol is unchanged this month in total, but shifts among types of sweeteners and starch were made based on the latest indications. Projected corn used forhigh fructose corn syrup (HFCS) was reduced to 495 million bushels on lower shipments during the first half of the 2011/12 crop year. U.S. Census data indicate shipments of HFCS to Mexico have been slower than expected. Corn use for HFCS in 2010/11 was estimated at 521 million bushels. Projected corn use for glucose and dextrose was adjusted upwards this month, to 300 million bushels, reflectingincreased shipments during the first half of the marketing year. Corn use for glucose and dextrose was estimated at 272 million bushels in 2010/11. Corn use for starch was reduced by 10 million bushels to 250 million. Use for starch during 2010/11 was estimated at 258 million bushels. Corn used to produce ethanol in 2011/12 is projected at 5 billion bushels, unchanged again this month. The latest...