Mercado de helicopteros

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UBS Investment Research Civil Helicopter Update
Low Young Used Presage Market Pick Up
Young helicopter inventories now at 4% of installed base Our analysis of the used helicopter market indicates that total available-for-sale helicopter inventories have held relatively flat over past 2+ years, while at the same time young used have trended lower. We estimate available inventories represent 6%of the installed base, roughly 70 bps lower from peak on larger fleet. Young available helicopter inventories (0-10 years) have moved lower by nearly 30% relative to the peak in mid-2009, including a 3% decline during January, and now represent only 4% of the installed base. Used pricing bumping along bottom By manufacturer, we estimate that 9% of the Agusta Westland fleet is available for sale,followed by Sikorsky at 8%, Eurocopter/MD at 6% and Bell at 5%. Used pricing has held relatively flat over the past year, and remains roughly 20% below peak levels on average across the 32 individual models we track. By weight class, we estimate single-engine and light twin pricing are off 15-20% from peak levels with intermediate/medium down 25-30%. The largest civil helicopter models such asS-92 and Super Puma are still hard to come by in the secondary market. See civil helos outgrowing military in 2012 Civil helicopter deliveries have declined 30%+ from peak levels in 2008 including a 20%+ y/y decline in 2011 with Bell taking some share back from Agusta Westland and Eurocopter. We believe low young used inventory levels presage increased civil helicopter production in 2012, whilemilitary appears likely to move lower. We have Buy ratings on UTX (Sikorsky) and TXT (Bell), where we see upside in 2012 on initial S-76D deliveries and continued ramp-up on 429. Chart 1: Helicopters Available for Sale by Age
1,400 1,200 Inventory Level 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 7% 6% % of Installed Base 4% 3% 2%1% 0% Inventory Level 5%

Global Equity Research
Americas Aerospace Sector Comment

10 February 2012
www.ubs.com/investmentresearch

David E. Strauss
Analyst david.strauss@ubs.com +1-212-713 6185

Darryl Genovesi
Analyst darryl.genovesi@ubs.com +1-212-713 4016

Ryan Thackston
Associate Analyst ryan.thackston@ubs.com +1-212-713 3321

Charles Armitage
Analyst charles.armitage@ubs.com +44-20-75679351

Rami Myerson, CFA
Analyst rami.myerson@ubs.com +44-20-7568 4375

Chart 2: Young Helicopters (0-10 Yrs Old) Available for Sale
400 300 200 100 0 Sep-09 Sep-10 Sep-11 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 May-09 May-10 May-11 Jan-12 8% % of Young Fleet 6% 4% 2% 0%

0-10 Years

10+ Years

% of Installed Base

0-5 Years
Source: JETNET and UBS estimates

6-10 Years

% of Young Fleet

Source: JETNET and UBS estimatesThis report has been prepared by UBS Securities LLC ANALYST CERTIFICATION AND REQUIRED DISCLOSURES BEGIN ON PAGE 20. UBS does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor inmaking their investment decision.

Civil Helicopter Update 10 February 2012

Used Helicopter Indicators
We are monitoring the used available for sale helicopter market, which we believe serves as a leading indicator of the new market. The outlook for commercial helicopters is important for Bell (Textron) and Sikorsky (United Technologies) in the US along with Eurocopter (EADS) and Agusta Westland(Finmeccanica) in Europe. We are monitoring several key indicators in the secondary market including used inventory levels, age distribution and pricing. Our analysis of the used helicopter market indicates that total available-for-sale helicopter inventories have held relatively flat over past 2+ years, while at the same time young used have trended lower. We estimate available inventories...