Petroleo México

OPEC
Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries

Monthly Oil Market Report
September 2009
Ongoing support for the global recovery
Oil market highlights Feature article Crude oil price movements Commodity markets Highlights of the world economy World oil demand World oil supply Product markets and refinery operations The tanker marketOil trade Stock movements Balance of supply and demand 1 3 5 9 14 20 27 34 38 41 50 53

Feature Article:

Obere Donaustrasse 93, A-1020 Vienna, Austria Obere 1 2164320 93, A-1020 Vienna, Austria Tel +43 1 21112 Fax +43 DonaustrasseE-mail: prid@opec.org Web site: www.opec.org Tel +43 1 21112 Fax +43 1 2164320 E-mail: prid@opec.org Web site: www.opec.org_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________Monthly Oil Market Report

Oil Market Highlights
The OPEC Reference Basket surged by a significant $6.76/b or 10% compared to the previous month to reach $71.35/b in August. A combination of improving economic signals along with crude stockdraws in the US provided support for market sentiment inAugust, particularly in the latter part of the month. However, US-dollar movement against major currencies and equity market volatility, along with technical sell-offs for profit-taking, capped the upward trend keeping prices around $70/b. Although fundamentals remain weak, in the absence of a major shift in economic sentiment, current market circumstances are likely to persist. The Basket priceaveraged $66.47/b on 14 September. The forecast for world economic growth in 2009 was revised up by 0.2 percentage points (pp) to now stand at minus 1.2%, while 2010 was revised up by 0.1 pp to 2.5%. These adjustments were mainly due to an improvement in the global growth numbers for the second quarter supported by the fiscal and monetary stimulus. OECD is now expected to decline by minus 3.6% in2009, compared to a previous minus 3.9%, before returning to positive growth of 0.9% in 2010, following an upward revision of 0.7%. The main revisions were seen in the Euro-zone, where both Germany and France returned to positive growth in the second quarter. Within the Developing Countries, China has been revised up for 2009 from 7.2% to 7.5%. Developing Asia will remain the main growth region in2010. World oil demand in 2009 is expected to contract by 1.6 mb/d to 84.1 mb/d. In 2010, global demand is forecast to return to growth following two years of consecutive declines, increasing 0.5 mb/d to stand at 84.6 mb/d. Both figures are unchanged from the previous report. Given the significant improvement in US consumption, OECD oil demand in August is forecast to decline by only 0.9 mb/d, upfrom a minus 1.8 mb/d in the previous month, while non-OECD demand is forecast to inch up by 0.7 mb/d. In 2010, OECD oil demand is forecast to see a smaller contraction of 0.3 mb/d as US consumption returns to positive. Demand growth next year is expected to be led by China with 0.3 mb/d followed by Middle East and India with 0.2 mb/d and 0.1 mb/d respectively. Non-OPEC oil supply in 2009 isexpected to average 50.8 mb/d, representing an increase of 340 tb/d over the previous year, indicating an upward revision of 70 tb/d from the last assessment. In 2010, non-OPEC oil supply is forecast to reach 51.2 mb/d, representing growth of 420 tb/d over the previous year. OPEC NGLs and non-conventionals are expected to average 4.7 mb/d in 2009 and 5.3 mb/d in 2010. In August, OPEC production stoodat 28.8 mb/d, an increase of around 0.1 mb/d over the previous month. Ample distillate stocks have dampened sentiment in the products market and overshadowed positive developments in other barrel components in August. With the end of the driving season and slowing gasoline cracks in recent weeks, there is a risk that refinery economics will continue to lose ground in the near future, encouraging...