Tendencias inversión extranjera directa mundo

GLOBAL TRENDS IN FDI

I

CHAPTER I
Global foreign direct investment (FDI) flows began to bottom out in the latter half of 2009. This was followed by a modest recovery in the first half of 2010, sparking some cautious optimism for FDI prospects in the short term. In the longer term, the recovery in FDI flows is set to gather momentum. Global inflows are expected to pick up to over $1.2 trillionin 2010, rise further to $1.3–1.5 trillion in 2011, and head towards $1.6–2 trillion in 2012. These FDI prospects are, however, fraught with risks and uncertainties, including the fragility of the global economic recovery. Some major changes in global FDI trends will most likely gain momentum in the short and medium term: • Developing and transition economies absorbed half of global FDI flows in2009 and their relative weight as both FDI destinations and sources is expected to increase further, as they are leading the FDI recovery. • Services and the primary sector continue to capture an increasing share of FDI. • FDI stock and assets continued to increase despite the toll taken by the crisis on TNCs’ sales and value added.

2

World Investment Report 2010: Investing in a Low-CarbonEconomy

A. Global trends in FDI flows: from a steep decline to a slow recovery
1. Overall and geographical trends
Global FDI flows began to bottom out in the latter half of 2009. This was followed by a modest recovery in the first half of 2010, sparking some cautious optimism for FDI prospects in the short term. In the longer term, from 2011 to 2012, the recovery in FDI flows is set to gathermomentum. Global inflows are expected to pick up to over $1.2 trillion in 2010, rise further to $1.3–1.5 trillion in 2011, and head towards $1.6–2 trillion in 2012. These FDI prospects are, however, fraught with risks and uncertainties arising from the fragility of the global economic recovery. The current recovery is taking place in the wake of a drastic decline in FDI flows worldwide in 2009.After a 16 per cent decline in 2008, global FDI inflows fell a further 37 per cent to $1,114 billion (fig. I.1), while outflows fell some 43 per cent to $1,101 billion.1 FDI flows contracted in almost all major economies, except for a few FDI recipients such as Denmark, Germany and Luxembourg, and investment sources such as Mexico, Norway and Sweden (annex table 1). Unless private investment regainsits leading economic role, the sustainability of the global recovery remains questionable. FDI flows bounced back slightly in the second quarter of 2009, but remained low for the rest of the year. According to UNCTAD’s Global FDI Quarterly Index,2 however, foreign investment showed renewed dynamism in the first quarter of 2010 (fig. I.2). Cross-border mergers and acquisitions (M&As) – still low at$250 billion in 2009 – rose by 36 per cent in the first five months of 2010 compared to the same period in the previous year.3 This suggests that annual FDI flows are likely to recover in 2010, thanks to higher economic growth in the main home and host countries, improved corporate profitability, and higher stock valuations (section C). As foreign investment continued to flow, albeit at a muchreduced pace, FDI inward stock rose by 15 per cent in 2009, reaching $18 trillion (annex table 2). This rise, however, also reflects the improved performance of global stock markets at the end of 2009, as FDI stock is usually valued at market price, as opposed to book value. In contrast, devastated stock markets and currency depreciations vis-à-vis the United States dollar had resulted in a 14 percent decline in FDI

Figure I.1. FDI inflows, globally and by groups of economies, 1980–2009 (Billions of dollars)
2 200 2 000 1 800 1 600 1 400 1 200 1 000 800 600 400 200 0
1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

World total Developing economies Developed economies

Transition...