Ethanol: world fuel

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World Fuel Ethanol
Analysis and Outlook
Prepared for METI By Dr. Christoph Berg, F.O. Licht

1

World Fuel Ethanol
Some basic concepts

•By production route:
Fermentation vs. Synthetic • By composition: Anhydrous vs. Hydrous • By end-use: Beverage, Industrial, Fuel

2

World Fuel Ethanol
The production route

•Synthetic ethanol:
Ethylene, coal; non-renewable •Fermentation ethanol: Grains, sugar crops, tapioca, wood etc; renewable
3

World Fuel Ethanol
The largest synthetic producers
Aprechim Chempetrol Neftochim Jilin Chemicals Japan Ethanol Mossgas Sodes Equistar BP SADAF Sasol 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400

Capacity (1000 tonnes/y)

4

World Fuel Ethanol
Share of synthetic ethanol

Fermentation 95% Synthetic 5%

5

World FuelEthanol
Composition

•Anhydrous:
99•‹ pure, may be used in fuel blends. • Hydrous: 96•‹ pure, may be used as 100% fuel substitute.
6

World Fuel Ethanol
Fuel alcohol in Brazil
16000 14000 12000

mln litres

10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 1970 1980 Hydrous 1990 Anhydrous 2000
7

World Fuel Ethanol
End use

•Beverage alcohol:
Alcoholic spirits: vodka, shochu etc.

•Industrial alcohol:Cosmetics, paints, inks.

•Fuel alcohol:
Blends or pure form.
8

World Fuel Ethanol
Ethanol production by type
80000 70000 60000
in mln litres

50000 40000 30000 20000 10000 0 1975 1980 Industrial 1985 1990 Beverage 1995 2000 Fuel 2005 2010
9

World Fuel Ethanol 1993 World Fuel Ethanol 1993

Grains Grains Sugar Sugar
10

World Fuel Ethanol 2003

Grains Sugar
11

WorldFuel Ethanol 2013

Grains Sugar
12

World Fuel Ethanol
The drivers of growth I

• Ethanol is good for the environment (Kyoto) • good for rural areas • reduces dependence on oil imports • enhances technological knowledge base
13

World Fuel Ethanol
The drivers of growth II

• Demand is virtually unlimited.
• Cost reduction potential is huge.

• A tried and tested technology.
14 World Fuel Ethanol
Success factors for biofuels

• Feedstocks
• Technology

• Policy
15

World Fuel Ethanol
World fuel ethanol production by feedstock

Sugar crops 61%

Grains 39%
16

World Fuel Ethanol
Ethanol yields per ha

USA (corn)

Brazil (cane)

France (beet)

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

Production (litres/ha)

17

WorldFuel Ethanol
Ethanol yields per tonne of feedstock

USA (corn)

Brazil (cane)

France (beet)

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

Production (litres/tonne)

18

World Fuel Ethanol
Gross feedstock costs per litre of fuel ethanol

USA (corn)

Brazil (cane)

France (beet)

0

5

10 Costs (US Cents/litre)

15

20

25

19

World FuelEthanol
Energy balance by feedstock
RME (Biodiesel) Wheat US corn Sugar beet Biomass Sugar cane 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

Energy output/Energy input

20

World Fuel Ethanol
The case for political support

• Ethanol may serve socially desirable goals but it...
• is more expensive than gasoline • faces an unfavourable opportunity cost structure

21

World Fuel Ethanol
Production cost reducingsubsidies

• Feedstock price support.
• Capital cost support.

• Income tax concessions.
22

World Fuel Ethanol
Income enhancing subsidies

• Excise tax concessions.
• Guaranteed (captive) markets.

• Price guarantees. • Direct price support
23

World Fuel Ethanol
Ethanol in Brazil
100 80

in per cent

60 40 20 0 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 1982 19841986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 Ethanol Gasoline
24

World Fuel Ethanol
Brazil – ethanol vs. gasoline economics
70 60 50
in %

40 30 20
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
25

Price advantage of alcohol over gasoline

World Fuel Ethanol
Brazil‘s ethanol/methanol trade
2500 2000 1500
mln litres

1000 500 0 -500 -1000 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001...
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