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Modern Macroeconomics

In loving memory of Brian’s parents, Joseph and Margaret Snowdon, and Howard’s father, Philip M. Vane

Modern Macroeconomics
Its Origins, Development and Current State

Brian Snowdon
Principal Lecturer in Economics in the Newcastle Business School, Northumbria University, Newcastle upon Tyne, UK

Howard R. Vane
Professor of Economics in the School ofAccounting, Finance and Economics, Liverpool John Moores University, Liverpool, UK

Edward Elgar
Cheltenham, UK • Northampton, MA, USA

© Brian Snowdon, Howard R. Vane 2005 All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical or photocopying, recording, or otherwise without the priorpermission of the publisher. Published by Edward Elgar Publishing Limited Glensanda House Montpellier Parade Cheltenham Glos GL50 1UA UK Edward Elgar Publishing, Inc. 136 West Street Suite 202 Northampton Massachusetts 01060 USA

A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library

ISBN 1 84376 394 X (cased) 1 84542 208 2 (paperback) Typeset by Manton Typesetters, Louth,Lincolnshire, UK. Printed and bound in Great Britain by MPG Books Ltd, Bodmin, Cornwall.

List of figures List of tables Preface Acknowledgements 1 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.9 1.10 2 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.8 2.9 2.10 2.11 2.12 2.13 2.14 2.15 2.16 Understanding modern macroeconomics Macroeconomic issues and ideas The role of economic theory and controversy Objectives, instrumentsand the role of government The Great Depression Keynes and the birth of macroeconomics The rise and fall of the Keynesian consensus Theoretical schizophrenia and the neoclassical synthesis Schools of thought in macroeconomics after Keynes The new political macroeconomics The renaissance of economic growth research Keynes v. the ‘old’ classical model Introduction Classical macroeconomics Employmentand output determination Say’s Law The quantity theory of money Keynes’s General Theory Interpreting the General Theory Keynes’s main propositions Keynes’s analysis of the labour market Keynes’s rejection of Say’s Law Keynes and the quantity theory of money Three important interpretations of Keynes The ‘new’ Keynes scholarship Causes and consequences of the Great Depression How to pay for the warKeynes and international macroeconomics

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Modern macroeconomics

2.17 Keynes’s legacy and the classical revival Interview with Robert Skidelsky 3 The orthodox Keynesian school 3.1 Introduction 3.2 The orthodox Keynesian school 3.3 The IS–LM model for a closed economy 3.4 Underemploymentequilibrium in the Keynesian model 3.5 The IS–LM model for an open economy 3.6 The Phillips curve and orthodox Keynesian economics 3.7 The central propositions of orthodox Keynesian economics Interview with James Tobin The orthodox monetarist school Introduction The quantity theory of money approach The expectations-augmented Phillips curve analysis The monetary approach to balance of paymentstheory and exchange rate determination 4.5 The orthodox monetarist school and stabilization policy Interview with Milton Friedman The new classical school 5 5.1 Introduction 5.2 The influence of Robert E. Lucas Jr 5.3 The structure of new classical models 5.4 Equilibrium business cycle theory 5.5 The policy implications of the new classical approach 5.6 An assessment Interview with Robert E. Lucas Jr 66.1 6.2 6.3 6.4 6.5 6.6 6.7 6.8 The real business cycle school Introduction: the demise of new classical macroeconomics mark I The transition from monetary to real equilibrium business cycle theory Real business cycle theory in historical perspective Cycles versus random walks Supply-side shocks Business cycles: main features and stylized facts Real business cycle theory The structure of a real...