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Global Market Outlook for Photovoltaics until 2012 Facing a sunny future

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market_publication02.indd 1

2008-02-11 22:48:36

Global Market Outlook for Photovoltaics until 2012 Facing a sunny future Demand side
The solar PV market has been booming over the last years and is forecasted to confirm this trend in the coming years. By the end of 2007 the globalcumulative capacity exceeded 9 GWp. The European Union contributes to around 50 % of the global cumulative capacity. Figure 1: Historical development of cumulative installed global and EU PV capacity

10000 9000 8000 7000 6000 EU GLOBAL

MWp

5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0
19 94 19 95 19 96 19 97 19 98 19 99 20 00 20 01 20 02 20 03 20 04 20 05 20 06 20 07 *
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 20022003 2004 2005 2006 2007*

EU GLOBAL
502 580 669 795

90

128

188

266

373

543 1089 1981 2971 4500

948 1150 1428 1762 2201 2795 3847 5253 6851 9100 * projected values from December 2007

All figures in MWp

PV market deployment is to a large extent dependent on the political framework of any given country. Support mechanisms are defined in national laws. The introduction,modification or fading out of such support schemes can have profound consequences on PV industries. PV Market forecasts therefore depend on a deep understanding of the political framework. EPIA puts a great deal of effort into analyzing PV markets. Due to its close contact with key players in the industry and its deep knowledge of PV policy and support schemes, EPIA market scenarios are a credibleand well known source for short term market forecasts.

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market_publication02.indd 2

2008-02-11 22:48:38

In December 2007, EPIA went through an extensive data gathering exercise among a highly representative sample of the PV industry, national associations and energy agencies. Based on cross checking of data and consolidation of complementary market projection methods, EPIA has derived2 representative scenarios for the future development of the PV industry. The Pessimistic scenario: This scenario is based on the assumptions of a ‘business as usual’ scenario which does not assume any major enforcement of support mechanisms. The Policy driven scenario: In this scenario, EPIA expects the follow up and/or introduction of support mechanisms, namely feed-in tariffs, in a largenumber of countries.

EPIA PV market scenarios until 2012
Figure 2: Annual market (MW) and annual growth rate (%)

pessimistic scenario policy driven scenario
12000 11000 10000 9000 8000 7000

annual growth rate
77% 62%

90% 80% 70% 60% 50%

MWp

6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 * 2008 *

41% 35% 29% 31% 34%

42% 35% 25%

40% 30% 26% 20%

14%10% 0% 2009* 2010* 2011* 2012*

* projected values

2006 Policy driven scenario Pessimistic scenario
All figures in MWp

2007 * 2246 2246

2008 * 3630 2940

2009 * 5160 3655

2010 * 6950 4680

2011 * 8673 5803

2012 * 10927 7282

1598 1598

* projected values

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market_publication02.indd 3

2008-02-11 22:48:39

In the Policy Driven Scenario EPIA expects 7 GWp ofannual installations by the year 2010 and 10.9 GWp by 2012. According to this scenario, within the next 5 years the global PV market will be 5 times bigger than it was in 2007. Annual market growth rates differed considerably in the past. Due to the take-off of the German PV market in 2004 the growth rate for annually installed capacity peaked at 71 % in the same year. A temporary shortage of siliconand a demand supply imbalance led to lower growth rates in the following 2 years. In 2007 the Spanish market took-off which again resulted in a bullish growth rate. Over the coming years European countries and the USA are expected to be the main contributors to continuous growth in the PV sector. In the following section, we will concentrate on the policy-driven scenario, which is believed to be...