Transporte

Transportation Research Part A 33 (1999) 671±689

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Urban mobility in the developing world
Ralph Gakenheimer
*

Department of Urban Studies and Planning, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 10-403 Cambridge, MA 02139, USA

Abstract Mobility and accessibility are declining rapidly in most of the developing world. The issues that a€ect levels of mobility andpossibilities for its improvement are varied. They include the rapid pace of motorization, conditions of local demand that far exceed the capacity of facilities, the incompatibility of urban structure with increased motorization, a stronger transport±land use relationship than in developed cities, lack of adequate road maintenance and limited agreement among responsible ocials as to appropriateforms of approach to the problem. The rapid rise of motorization presents the question: At what level will it begin to attenuate for given economic and regulatory conditions? Analysts have taken various approaches to this problem, but so far the results are not encouraging. Developing cities have shown signi®cant leadership in vehicle use restrictions, new technologies, privatization, transitmanagement, transit service innovation, transportation pricing and other actions. Only a few, however, have made important strides toward solving the problem. Developing cities have lessons to learn from developed cities as regards roles of new technologies, forms of institutional management and the long term consequences of di€erent de facto policies toward the automobile. These experiences, however,especially in the last category, need to be interpreted very carefully in order to provide useful guidance to cities with, for he most part, entirely di€erent historical experiences in transportation. Continued progress in meeting the needs of the mobility problem in developing cities will focus on: (a) highway building, hopefully used as an opportunity to rationalize access, (b) public transportmanagement improvements, (c) pricing improvements, (d) trac management, and (e) possibly an emphasis on rail rapid transit based on new revenue techniques. Ó 1999 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

1. Introduction In the large cities of the developing world, travel times are generally high and increasing, and destinations accessible within limited time are decreasing. The averageone-way commute in Rio de Janeiro is 107 min. In Bogota it is 90 min. The average vehicle speed in Manila is 7 miles per hour. The average car in Bangkok is stationary in trac for the equivalent of 44 days a year.
*

Corresponding author. Tel.: +1 617 253 1932; fax: +1 617 971 0421; e-mail: rgaken@mit.edu.

0965-8564/99/$ ± see front matter Ó 1999 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. PII: S0 9 6 5 - 8 5 6 4 ( 9 9 ) 0 0 0 0 5 - 1

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R. Gakenheimer / Transportation Research Part A 33 (1999) 671±689

This is happening because vehicle registrations are growing fast on the basis of increased populations, increased wealth, increased commercial penetration, and probably an increasingly persuasive picture in the developing world of international lifestyle in which a car is anessential element. Accordingly, in much of the developing world the number of motor vehicles is increasing at more than 10% a year±the number of vehicles doubling in 7 yr. The countries include China (15%), Chile, Mexico, Korea, Thailand, Costa Rica, Syria, Taiwan, and many more. What is the shape of increasing congestion and declining mobility? There are no widespread measures available forcomparative purposes because decline in mobility is complicated. Congestion is always localized in time and space. A few things are nonetheless evident. 1. Congestion is reducing the mobility of auto users. It is clear by measures of trac delay available and even by impressionistic evidence that in virtually all large cities of the developing (and developed) world congestion increasingly impedes...