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United States Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service Circular Series FOP 01 - 10 January 2010

Cotton: World Markets and Trade

Shift in Timing of China’s Imports Affects U.S. Exports
(First Five Months Trade as Percent of Yearly Total)

45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% U.S. Exports 15% 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 China Imports

In China sales from the statereserves and the resulting change in the timing of sliding-scale TRQ licenses are expected to shift imports into the second half of the year, this will have a significant affect on the timing of U.S. exports. China has great variability in the seasonality of its imports, largely due to changes in government policies affecting imports. This year reflects a radical departure from the past 2 years’seasonality, but is more in line with long-term U.S. patterns. In the previous two marketing years, early season U.S. exports were well above historical levels, but in line with the shift to earlier season imports by China in those years. Historically, China was not a major importer and the seasonality of its imports had little effect on U.S. export timing. As a result, U.S. export seasonality wasvery stable. However, in recent years China’s imports have increased dramatically, accounting for over one-third of U.S. exports.

Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board/USDA

Prices
World prices have continued upward. China’s issuance of 1.9 million mt. of import licenses has not appreciably lowered domestic prices but this has helped to strengthen world prices U.S. prices have alsocontinued to rise in recent weeks.
Monthly Average Cotton Prices 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0
Apr-08 Apr-09 Aug-07 Aug-08 Aug-09 Feb-09 Oct-08 Oct-09 Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Oct-07 Feb-08 Jun-08 Jun-09

US cents/lbs

A-Index

Spot Price

TRADE CHANGES IN 2009/2010 Major Exporters: • India is down 200,000 bales to 6.6 million bales on smaller crop expectations and continued strong domesticdemand.

Major Importers: • • Japan is down 100,000 bales to 275,000 bales as signs of recovery in the textile sector fail to appear. Mexico is down 100,000 bales to 1.5 million bales as early season import demand is weaker than previously expected.

TRADE CHANGES IN 2008/2009 Major Importers: • • Pakistan Down 200,000 Bales Vietnam Up 91,000 Bale

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA Office ofGlobal Analysis

January 2010

Summary of Changes in estimates and Forecasts from Last Month
(1,000 480 lb Bales and 1,000 Ha)
Country Mktg Year

Area Harvested

Beginning Stocks

Production

Imports

Exports

Use

Loss

Total Dom. Cons.

Ending Stocks

Argentina 2009/10 Australia 2009/10 Azerbaijan 2009/10 Bolivia 2008/09 2009/10 Brazil 2009/10 China 2009/10 CzechRepublic 2009/10 India 2009/10 Japan 2009/10 Kazakhstan 2009/10 Malaysia 2009/10 Mexico 2009/10 Pakistan 2008/09 2009/10 Peru 2009/10 Russia 2009/10 0 0 0 -75 0 -50 0 -50 -25 -3 0 -10 0 0 0 0 0 -10 0 0 0 -200 0 0 -200 50 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -200 -150 0 0 0 -100 0 0 0 0 -100 0 0 0 10 10 0 0 0 0 10 0 25 0 25 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -100 0 -90 0 -90 -10 0 0 -300 0 -200 0 0 0 -100 0 0 0 0 5 -5 0 -5 0 50 0 500 0 0 0 0 0500 5 0 150 0 0 0 0 0 150 0 0 0 2 0 0 3 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 2 0 0 -10 0 0 0 0 0 -10 -5 0 -50 0 0 0 0 0 -50 0 0 -25 -20 0 0 0 0 -45

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA Office of Global Analysis

January 2010

Summary of Changes in estimates and Forecasts from Last Month (Continued)
(1,000 480 lb Bales and 1,000 Ha)
Country Mktg Year

Area Harvested

Beginning Stocks

ProductionImports

Exports

Use

Loss

Total Dom. Cons.

Ending Stocks

Slovenia 2008/09 Sudan 2009/10 United States 2009/10 -17 0 -191 0 0 0 9 9 -200 -45 0 -95 0 -55 0 0 0 -40 0 0 0 0 2 -2 0 -2 0

World World 2008/09 2009/10 0 -5 0 -198 0 -6 -197 -235 3 -215 -2 -145 0 9 -2 -136 -198 -88

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA Office of Global Analysis

January 2010

Table 01 Cotton World...
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