Gsc-Forecasting

INVENTORY MANAGEMENT AND PROCUREMENT
• • • • • • • • • • Session 1: Demand Management & Forecasting – Case Maracas Session 2: Basic inventory models Session 3: Advanced inventory models Session 4:Inventory management system issues – Case Hospital Session 5: MRO logistics – Case IBM Session 6 : Inventory management strategic issues – Case Guiness Session 7: Procurement, purchasing and buyingSession 8: Procurement strategies - Case Sodexho Session 9: e-procurement – Case Ericsson Session 10: Global sourcing
IE
GSC 2007 Angel Díaz

Forecasting
• What is forecasting?
– Primary Functionis to Predict the Future

• Why are we interested?
– Affects decisions we make today – it is where we are going to spend the rest of our lives

• Examples: who uses forecasting in their jobs?
–forecast demand for products and services – forecast availability of manpower – forecast inventory and materiel needs daily
IE
GSC 2007 Angel Díaz

Who does it? :electricity planning in ItalyCase Marca
www.grtn.it
IE
GSC 2007 Angel Díaz

Forecasting techniques
• Qualitative methods: Delphi, AHP • Moving average • Exponential smoothing • Autoregressive Box & Jenkins models •Regression
Let Y be the quantity to be forecasted and (X1, X2, . . . , Xn) be n variables that have predictive power for Y. A causal model is Y = f (X1, X2, . . . , Xn). Xn). A typical relationship is alinear one. That is,Y = a0 + a1X1 + . . . + an Xn. Xn.

AHP: analytic hierarchy process

IE
GSC 2007 Angel Díaz

Formal AHP outsourcing analysis: Hidrocapital
1.1 Acceptance by … 1.1.1 CentralGovernment 1.2 Negotiation power 1.1.2 Political parties P e rf o rm anc e S e nsitivity w .r.t. G O A L f or no d e s b e 1.3 Private sector participation 1.1.3 Counties 1.4 Social equality 1.1.4Existing operators 1.5 Degree of decentralization 1.1.5 Others (media, public) 2.1 Capacity for planning 2.2 Judicial security 2. Sustainability 2.3 Social equality (12.2%) 2.4 Mission 2.5 Human resources...