Turismo
August 22, 2002
SME Business Forum 2002
José Luis Romero Hicks President and Chief Executive Officer Mexico’s National Bank for Foreign Trade
ASIA-PACIFIC ECONOMIC COOPERATION
Leading economic bloc worldwide Combined GDP over 18 trillion dollars Accounts for 47% of global trade Total population of 2.5 billion people Important source of technologicaladvance Promoting Free trade and investment Economic cooperation
ASIA-PACIFIC ECONOMIC COOPERATION
Combined GDP over 18 trillion dollars Accounts for 47% of global trade Total population of 2.5 billion people Important source of technological advance Free trade and investment Economic cooperation
Leading economic bloc worldwide
Promoting
MEXICO IN THE INTERNATIONAL ECONOMY, 2001
(GDPin billion dlls.)
Ninth world economy
U.S.A. Japan
10208,1
4148,7 1847,4 1424,5 1307,1 1158,7 1089,4 699,9 617,9
Germany U.K. France China Italy Canada Mexico
Seventh world exporter 1/
46% of LatAm exports Billion dollars Mexico 158.5 Brazil 58.4 Argentina 26.9
–
First Latin American exporter
0
5000
10000
Second trade partner of the U.S.
Total trade, 20012/Canada Mexico 1/Considering the European Union as a whole 2/ Billion dollars Japan Source: World Bank, WTO and U.S. Department of Commerce, UNCTAD
381 233 184
TRADE AGREEMENTS WITH 32 COUNTRIES
European Union
NAFTA
Israel Guatemala, Honduras & El Salvador Nicaragua
Bolivia
Chile
EFTA*: Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway, Switzerland
Colombia & Venezuela
*European Free TradeAssociation
Costa Rica Uruguay
MEXICO’S STRONG FUNDAMENTALS
Strategic location Strategic location Open Open economy economy Competitive Competitive labor force labor force Network of free trade Network of free trade agreements with 32 agreements with 32 countries countries Investment protection Investment protection agreements agreements Investment Investment grade grade Sectors withSectors with high potential high potential
Sound management Sound management of economic policy of economic policy
MEXICO’S ADVANTAGES
Strategic geographical location Committed to: trade liberalization, promotion of economic growth, employment and development Key player in international trade Free trade agreements with 32 countries 850 million consumers World class trading partner Since 1994,FDI inflows of almost 100 billion dollars Competitive production costs and skilled labor force
ECONOMIC RESULTS IN 2002
Macroeconomic stability Growing convergence to the U.S. economy Expected results for 2002
Moderate GDP growth Stable inflation Slight recovery in exports 1.7% 4.5% 2%-4%
Low country risk
Differentiation with other Latin American countries
MEXICO: MACROECONOMIC ANDFINANCIAL STABILITY
12 10 8
Annual inflation 2000-2002 (%)
6
4
2 J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J
20 18 16 14 12
CETES
TIIE
Interest rates 2000-2002 (%)
10 8 6 4 M J S D M J S D M J A
10,2 10
Daily rate
9,8
Exchange rate 2001-2002
(Pesos for dollar)
Source: Banco de México
Moving average 25 days
9,6 9,4 9,2 9 8,8'02/01/2001
'28/05/2001
'16/10/2001
21/02/2002
16/07/2002
RISK PERCEPTION REGARDING MEXICO REMAINS LOW AND STABLE
Basis points*
8000
Country risk for selected Latin American economies, 2002
August 16 6,637
6000
Argentina
4000
2,101
2000
Brazil
0
2 14 25 6 19 1 13 28 10 22 2 14 24 6
Mexico
18 28 11 23 2
387
14
J
F
M
A
M
J
J
A
*Withrespect to the U.S.A. Treasury Bonds Source: SHCP
EXPECTED RECOVERY OF MEXICAN EXPORTS IN 2002
Estimated growth for 2002
2% to 5% Between 161.5 and 166.3 billion dollars
Total exports 1990-2002
180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 1990
164.5
Oil Non oil
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2001 2002e/
e/ Estimated Source: Banco de Mexico
MEXICO IS THE MAIN SUPPLIER TO THE...
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