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ASIA PACIFIC ECONOMIC COOPERATION
August 22, 2002

SME Business Forum 2002
José Luis Romero Hicks President and Chief Executive Officer Mexico’s National Bank for Foreign Trade

ASIA-PACIFIC ECONOMIC COOPERATION
Leading economic bloc worldwide Combined GDP over 18 trillion dollars Accounts for 47% of global trade Total population of 2.5 billion people Important source of technologicaladvance Promoting Free trade and investment Economic cooperation

ASIA-PACIFIC ECONOMIC COOPERATION
Combined GDP over 18 trillion dollars Accounts for 47% of global trade Total population of 2.5 billion people Important source of technological advance Free trade and investment Economic cooperation

Leading economic bloc worldwide

Promoting

MEXICO IN THE INTERNATIONAL ECONOMY, 2001
(GDPin billion dlls.)

Ninth world economy

U.S.A. Japan

10208,1

4148,7 1847,4 1424,5 1307,1 1158,7 1089,4 699,9 617,9

Germany U.K. France China Italy Canada Mexico

Seventh world exporter 1/

46% of LatAm exports Billion dollars Mexico 158.5 Brazil 58.4 Argentina 26.9


First Latin American exporter

0

5000

10000

Second trade partner of the U.S.
Total trade, 20012/Canada Mexico 1/Considering the European Union as a whole 2/ Billion dollars Japan Source: World Bank, WTO and U.S. Department of Commerce, UNCTAD

381 233 184

TRADE AGREEMENTS WITH 32 COUNTRIES
European Union

NAFTA

Israel Guatemala, Honduras & El Salvador Nicaragua

Bolivia

Chile

EFTA*: Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway, Switzerland

Colombia & Venezuela
*European Free TradeAssociation

Costa Rica Uruguay

MEXICO’S STRONG FUNDAMENTALS
Strategic location Strategic location Open Open economy economy Competitive Competitive labor force labor force Network of free trade Network of free trade agreements with 32 agreements with 32 countries countries Investment protection Investment protection agreements agreements Investment Investment grade grade Sectors withSectors with high potential high potential

Sound management Sound management of economic policy of economic policy

MEXICO’S ADVANTAGES
Strategic geographical location Committed to: trade liberalization, promotion of economic growth, employment and development Key player in international trade Free trade agreements with 32 countries 850 million consumers World class trading partner Since 1994,FDI inflows of almost 100 billion dollars Competitive production costs and skilled labor force

ECONOMIC RESULTS IN 2002
Macroeconomic stability Growing convergence to the U.S. economy Expected results for 2002
Moderate GDP growth Stable inflation Slight recovery in exports 1.7% 4.5% 2%-4%

Low country risk
Differentiation with other Latin American countries

MEXICO: MACROECONOMIC ANDFINANCIAL STABILITY
12 10 8

Annual inflation 2000-2002 (%)

6

4

2 J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J

20 18 16 14 12

CETES
TIIE

Interest rates 2000-2002 (%)

10 8 6 4 M J S D M J S D M J A

10,2 10

Daily rate
9,8

Exchange rate 2001-2002
(Pesos for dollar)
Source: Banco de México

Moving average 25 days

9,6 9,4 9,2 9 8,8'02/01/2001

'28/05/2001

'16/10/2001

21/02/2002

16/07/2002

RISK PERCEPTION REGARDING MEXICO REMAINS LOW AND STABLE
Basis points*
8000

Country risk for selected Latin American economies, 2002

August 16 6,637

6000

Argentina

4000

2,101
2000

Brazil
0
2 14 25 6 19 1 13 28 10 22 2 14 24 6

Mexico
18 28 11 23 2

387
14

J

F

M

A

M

J

J

A

*Withrespect to the U.S.A. Treasury Bonds Source: SHCP

EXPECTED RECOVERY OF MEXICAN EXPORTS IN 2002
Estimated growth for 2002
2% to 5% Between 161.5 and 166.3 billion dollars

Total exports 1990-2002
180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 1990

164.5
Oil Non oil

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2001 2002e/

e/ Estimated Source: Banco de Mexico

MEXICO IS THE MAIN SUPPLIER TO THE...
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